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Grayscale credits software agents for AI tokens' 54% September gain
Grayscale research head Zach Pandl says AI-linked tokens rose 54% in September against 24% for crypto overall, with NEAR up 183%. Broken out token by token, the figures show one strong name in a small sector more than a market pricing blockchains as infrastructure for agents.
The Investor · Invest desk
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What happened
- Pandl's Oct. 2 note linked the outperformance to an emerging economy of software agents, programs that perform tasks and transact on users' behalf.
- Among the other tokens Grayscale highlighted, Venice's VVV rose 70%, World's WLD rose 47% and Bittensor's TAO rose 37% in September.
- NEAR AI opened an AI Agent Market on Feb. 4 in which software bids on tasks and is paid in NEAR, with funds held until the work is done.
- Grayscale's Decentralized AI Fund, a product separate from its sector index, kept NEAR and Bittensor in its August rebalance alongside Render and Filecoin.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- decision An allocator who wants the agent exposure Grayscale describes has to choose between NEAR and the sector basket, since the rest of the highlighted names roughly tracked the sector average without beating it.
- exposure Grayscale's research and its fund point the same way, because the product gains if investors accept the note's case for NEAR and Bittensor.
- cost Agents with wallets have already lost money through exposed credentials and unauthorized actions in Openclaw experiments, so the payment use case is absorbing security losses before anyone has published its revenue.
Take NEAR out of the four tokens Grayscale highlighted and the other three averaged about 51% for September [2], slightly below the 54% the sector posted [1]. NEAR's 183% was about 3.4 times the sector's gain [5]. TAO finished 17 points behind its own sector and 13 points ahead of the broad market [3].
The spread also supports part of Pandl's case. NEAR is the token with a live agent-payments product, the task market NEAR AI opened in February [9], and it is the one that ran. Grayscale's list of uses runs to agent payments, identity, verifiable records and private computing [13]. The tokens tied to the other uses, World's network for proving a participant is human [14] and Venice's private access to models [15], rose far less [8].
Size is the other explanation. The AI segment is worth roughly $15bn, the smallest of Grayscale's six crypto sectors [4], and its September gain was 2.25 times the market's in percentage terms [1]. If $15bn is the end-of-month value, the sector started September near $9.7bn and added about $5bn of market value [4]. That $5bn is a change in token prices. The report does not include payment volumes or fee income for the agent services Grayscale cites.
September fits Grayscale's reading, that investors are starting to value public blockchains as infrastructure for automated commerce, identity verification and private computing [3]. It also fits a small basket catching more of a broad rally, or one token lifting a sector figure its peers did not match. On the published figures, I think the second and third explain more of the 30-point gap [5] than the first does. The view is wrong if the AI sector keeps a lead over the market in a month when crypto falls, because a small basket that only amplifies the market should lose more than the market in that month.
Pandl gave himself longer than a month. "We believe the AI sector could produce one or more major winners over the next five years," he wrote [6]. Rodrigo Coelho, chief executive of blockchain developer Edge and Node, named transaction capacity and shared reputation systems as the scaling problems for agent infrastructure in an October 2025 interview [11].
What to watch
- Settled task volume on NEAR AI's Agent Market, the usage figure that should rise with NEAR if the agent-payments reading is right.
- Grayscale's next Decentralized AI Fund rebalance, and whether its weights follow NEAR's 183% month or trim it.