Korean issuers put 41.8% of September's new bonds inside three years

Five-year unsecured corporate paper rated AA- in Korea yielded 4.89% on the 21st, against 3.79% at the start of the year ^[11]. That is 110 basis points ^[12], and the Fed's September move is under 23% of it ^[13]. The briefing, produced by Seoul Economic Daily's AI PRISM summary service ^[24], ties the wider term premium to the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaking 5% on the 14th ^[10].

The one-and-done template is March 1997, and the briefing says analysts see little chance the September increase proves a one-off ^[2]. In 1997 real GDP was growing in the mid-4% range, unemployment was in the high-4% range, inflation was stable, and the Fed held at 5.50% as the Asian financial crisis compounded the picture ^[14]. The September Summary of Economic Projections puts fourth-quarter PCE inflation at 3.7%, core PCE at 3.4%, real GDP growth at 2.3% and unemployment at 4.1% ^[15]. Growth is roughly half the 1997 pace ^[16]. The fiscal comparison runs the other way as well: the Clinton administration was shrinking the deficit quickly, while the Trump administration carries a cumulative deficit and the burden of high long-term rates ^[17].

The shortening in the record is Korea's. The maturity figures come from the Korea Securities Depository, and the briefing does not report a comparable share for U.S. issuance ^[26]. SK REITs, which completed demand forecasting this month, split its issue into 40 billion won of one-year notes and 60 billion won of two-year notes ^[6], 100 billion won at a weighted average maturity of 1.6 years ^[7]. Commercial paper outstanding, which typically matures within a year, was 219 trillion won this month against 204 trillion at the end of last year ^[8], an increase of 15 trillion won ^[9].

An issuer placing 1.6-year money will be back in front of investors in 2027 and 2028, at whatever the curve offers then. The briefing's writer expects the Fed to raise at least once more and then hold for a considerable period, citing inflation pressure from a prolonged Middle East war ^[18]. On that path the short tilt works, because the refinancing lands after the peak. The other case is the one the briefing flags, with high oil prices and inflation becoming entrenched amid the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict ^[19], and companies left with less room to refinance when a market shock hits ^[20].

The same caution is showing up in equity issuance. Opposition to data center construction has grown ahead of November's midterm elections, and related IPOs are being postponed or halted ^[21]. SB Energy, the SoftBank subsidiary pushing to build the world's largest data center in Ohio, moved a listing planned for this month to after mid-October ^[22]. The New York Times said the results of large data center operators preparing to list will serve as the first test ^[23].