The Fed's first increase since July 2023 was 25 basis points. Korea's five-year AA- corporate yields are up 110 basis points this year, and the share of new paper maturing inside three years jumped from 24.7% in August.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives30
- Confidence48
The 10-year traded at 5.039% on the 15th, its highest since July 2007, after Saudi Arabia closed an alternative crude shipping route and oil passed $100. Eighty-five percent of the economists Reuters polled now expect a September Fed hike.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption65
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives50
- Confidence40
Zhipu closed about $5 billion two months after raising $4 billion in a July share sale. The largest sum in the same tally is the $29.6 billion that ByteDance borrowed from roughly 30 banks at home and abroad.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives60
- Confidence35
Korea's three-year treasury yield went above 4% in the same week that opposition lawmakers put Seoul's housing starts at well under 60% of their decade average. The National Assembly spent the day arguing about capital-gains deductions.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives74
- Confidence47
The three-year treasury yield closed at 4.014% and WTI at $102.48, the KOSPI gave up the 7,000 level, and the money leaving Korea's safest funds landed in brokerage accounts with margin debt already at 32.36 trillion won.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption61
- Hype gap+19
- Incentives46
- Confidence41
Seoul Economic Daily reports that AI startups increasingly annualize a single month because usage billed in tokens does not qualify as recurring revenue. OpenAI books net of partner shares; Anthropic books gross.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence35
Gallup has Lee Jae-myung at 42% approval with housing named by 27% of those who disapprove, which fattens the regulatory tail on Korean property just as the Bank of Korea hikes for a second month and Seoul moves to restructure 6.3 trillion won of arrears.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives55
- Confidence32
The Ministry of Employment and Labor wants routine reassignments tied to building or expanding a workplace kept out of bargaining and dispute scope, which hands chipmakers a quieter path from capex to a staffed fab. The final text is due next week.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption14
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives58
- Confidence34
Won-loan delinquency hit 0.56% in June, the highest for that month since 2016. All of the deterioration sits on the corporate side, and small firms are carrying it.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives45
- Confidence52
The July index rose 0.13 points to 3.18%, and KB Kookmin and Woori reprice variable mortgages from the 19th. The tax change that might ease the exit is now being renegotiated.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption64
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
Borrowers rolling off 2021 fixed terms at the five major banks meet variable rates of 4.09% to 5.69%, with the Bank of Korea signaling another hike. Asset managers are selling defence.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives63
- Confidence34
Sidecars fired 78 times and circuit breakers 13 times through the 14th. The five largest asset managers' ETF desks are now selling cash flow instead of direction.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives66
- Confidence44