Sergey Brin has given $102 million to defeat California's Prop 40, a one-time 5% billionaire tax that could cost him about $13 billion. The state's $100 billion estimate depends as much on how many of its 200 billionaires stay resident as on the November vote.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives78
- Confidence60
PPIC's September survey puts Prop 40 at 52%, Prop 41 at 51% and Prop 42 at 54%, and Prop 40 takes effect only if it outpolls both in yes votes. Every gap between the three sits inside a 3.8-point margin of error.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives74
- Confidence64
The San Francisco Democratic Party broke with its state party 17-4 to oppose Prop 40, but the six billionaires who have already ended their California residency are the only votes on this measure that are already counted.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives86
- Confidence46
Proposition 40 would take 5% once from anyone worth over $1 billion. August polling puts it at 48% among likely voters and 75% among 18-to-29s. The composition of the November electorate is the only number that decides it.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+19
- Incentives84
- Confidence52
The CPA body opposes Proposition 40 on administrability grounds, then endorses Proposition 42, which would bar the tax outright. Approval votes, not a majority, settle it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives78
- Confidence52
A 5% levy on about 200 people was costed against wealth that has already moved. Fortune counts roughly $29 billion gone, and the two men at the top were 28.5% of the base.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives78
- Confidence42
John Doerr put in $7.5 million and Chris Larsen $10 million against a one-time 5% wealth tax. Measured against what the measure would cost them, that is cheap insurance.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption71
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives84
- Confidence61
Mark Cuban and Ro Khanna spent a weekend arguing on X about California's Proposition 40. The operative question for founders is where the cash comes from.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives85
- Confidence62
California's billionaire tax faces a nine-figure defense built as ballot engineering: two counter-measures that only have to outpoll Prop 40, not beat it head-on.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives88
- Confidence64