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Boeing's $20 billion F/A-XX win ties both US sixth-generation fighters to its delivery record
Boeing won the Navy's $20 billion F/A-XX contract and now holds both US sixth-generation fighter programs. Investors have to judge whether a company still repairing its jetliner and space programs can build two new fighters on cost and on schedule.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Analysts told Reuters the F/A-XX could be worth hundreds of billions of dollars over the life of the program.
- Boeing shares fell about 6% this week after the FAA delayed 737 Max 10 certification over a software glitch in automated flight guidance.
- FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the delay lasts until the agency is satisfied, and Boeing may not have a permanent software fix until 2028.
- NASA plans to fly Boeing's Starliner capsule to the space station again, uncrewed, as soon as December.
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Why it matters
- exposure The Navy and the Air Force now rely on a single contractor for their next fighters, so both services carry Boeing's execution risk together.
- decision Northrop holders now have to value the company without a carrier fighter, on the nuclear triad and digital manufacturing work the Seeking Alpha author cites for keeping a buy rating.
- contradiction The Daily Upside treats the award as proof Boeing still finds buyers when in trouble, while the Seeking Alpha author treats it as added cost and schedule risk on two programs at once.
Jetliners make up about 84% of the $715 billion Boeing was owed at the end of June [8][1]. Everything else comes to roughly $115 billion [2]. The Navy award is about 2.8% of the total [3] and about 17% of the non-commercial part [6]. Add the Air Force's F-47, a $20 billion contract from March 2025 [2], and the two sixth-generation fighters come to $40 billion [4], or about 5.6% of the book [5].
The stock follows the bigger number. The Max 10 alone has 1,500 orders waiting on certification [9]. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford has said the software glitch is much less troubling than the problems behind the 2018 and 2019 crashes, because pilots keep full control of the aircraft [5]. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Wednesday that he sees no reason for a prolonged delay [7].
The fighter has a bigger number of its own: the lifetime value analysts gave Reuters [3]. Any cost growth would be measured against that total. Neither report includes the contract type, the number of aircraft or a delivery schedule. The Seeking Alpha author who called the award a surprise blow for Northrop [16] lists the Navy's reasons for choosing Boeing. They are shared technology, production investments already made, and existing carrier-based and drone capabilities [12]. The author writes that short-term savings and industrial-base concerns drove the decision, and that Boeing's recent history of overruns and delays raises execution risk on both programs [13].
If the shared base works, money already spent on the F-47 lowers the Navy's cost, and consolidation produces the saving the Navy wanted. A slip on one program, on the other hand, would reach the other through the same shared technology, and investors would apply the execution discount twice. Or neither happens soon, the fighters stay a small line in Boeing's numbers, and the stock keeps trading on FAA decisions. I think the third describes the next year, and the second decides what the fighter business is worth. The counter-case is that the Navy weighed the savings and the industrial base against Boeing's record and picked Boeing anyway [13].
Starliner shows how far a Boeing schedule can stretch. Its 2024 test flight was planned to last a week and left two astronauts on the International Space Station for nine months [11]. Boeing now has another Starliner test flight, a Max 10 software fix and two sixth-generation fighters open at the same time [10][6][1]. This thesis is wrong if the F-47 meets its cost and schedule targets in the next disclosures. That would show the shared-technology case working before the Navy jet depends on it.
What to watch
- Disclosure of the F/A-XX contract type, aircraft numbers and schedule, the terms that decide who pays if costs run over.
- The FAA's next statement on Max 10 certification, the item Boeing's share price moved on this week.