Leadership1 publisher3 min readPublished
Anthropic's IPO slips into November as this year's new listings average a 4% loss
Anthropic could start marketing its IPO the week of Nov. 9, a month later than planned, at a value investors put at $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion. Companies that build on its models would then rely on a supplier whose losses and price are debated in public.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
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What happened
- Anthropic's last private round, in May 2026, raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation.
- Its confidential draft prospectus shows about $4.6 billion of 2025 revenue, up from $386 million in 2024, and an operating loss above $8 billion.
- Leaving out SpaceX and SK Hynix, the more than 100 stocks that listed in 2026 show a weighted-average loss of 4%.
- OpenAI has ruled out a 2026 IPO and is raising at least $30 billion privately at a valuation near $1.4 trillion.
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Why it matters
- decision Buyers splitting work between Anthropic and OpenAI would, from late November, be weighing a supplier with public books against one that stays private through 2026.
- exposure Once Anthropic lists, any markdown of its value happens in public. Customers negotiating with it would watch their supplier's price move with each trading session.
- constraint A Nov. 9 start leaves 17 days before Thanksgiving, when dealmaking usually stops, so any further delay to the public filing would push the deal past the holiday.
Measured against revenue, the range is steep. At $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion, Anthropic would be valued at roughly 390 to 435 times its 2025 revenue of about $4.6 billion [2]. That revenue was itself about 12 times the 2024 figure [3]. SpaceX's record June listing raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation, which is below even the low end of Anthropic's range [7].
The case against the deal is about losses. "Wall Street might choke on the losses, and you only get one chance to make a first impression," Axios's Dan Primack wrote [21]. Much of the headline loss is accounting. Of the almost $42 billion net loss for 2025, more than $34 billion came from changes in the fair value of liabilities, an accounting charge and not cash spent [9]. That is more than 80% of the total [8]. The operating loss is harder to explain away. It was above $8 billion, more than 1.7 times revenue [4].
New issues have done badly this year. The S&P 500 has returned 12% and the Nasdaq 100 20% [11], against the 4% average loss for this year's listings, a gap of 16 to 24 points [5]. That 4% is a weighted average, so it describes the group as a whole, with larger listings counting for more [10]. Oura pulled its offering hours before a planned share sale after some buyers balked at a fully diluted valuation of about $15 billion. It was the third company in weeks to postpone [12].
The timing is tight. Bloomberg's timetable rests on people familiar with the plans, and no public prospectus exists yet [18]. A roadshow in the week of Nov. 9 would follow the Nov. 3 midterm vote. The September plan had aimed to finish the listing days before it [14]. Anthropic filed a confidential draft with the SEC on June 1 and must publish the filing at least 15 days before marketing begins [13]. For a Nov. 9 start, the latest date is Oct. 25 [6]. The company said the offering depends on market conditions and other factors [17]. It is still expected to list by the end of 2026, though the schedule could change again [15].
OpenAI made the opposite call, and its chief executive gave the reason. "Right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public, and we don't feel pressure on that," Sam Altman said [20]. The trade-off is clear. Anthropic accepts public disclosure in return for a raise it expects to match or beat SpaceX's [6]. It would do so at a valuation $400 billion to $600 billion above OpenAI's private mark [7].
For companies that buy models, I'd expect the first effect of the listing to be disclosure. The reporting does not cover customer pricing or contract terms, so it is not yet known whether a public valuation would change either. A buyer signing this quarter signs before the public filing. If the reported schedule holds, a buyer signing after Thanksgiving would be dealing with a listed supplier [1].
What to watch
- What senior management tells institutional investors at the Oct. 14 investor day in San Francisco, and whether the $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion range holds afterward.
- Whether the public registration statement, when it appears, revises the draft's revenue, operating loss or fair-value charges on liabilities.
- A fourth postponed 2026 offering, which would show the market Anthropic is entering is still pulling deals.