Li Chenggang's title now matches the one Jamieson Greer holds, announced on the day officials met in New York and four days before Trump and Xi sit down. Whether the new channel carries authority is the open question.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
The WTO puts AI-enabling goods up 42% year over year at 18.7% of world merchandise trade. Semiconductors in the same quarter grew 25%, so the faster growth sits in processors and data transmission equipment.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives55
- Confidence38
The bloc's leaders adopted a Middle East paragraph that assigns responsibility to no country, and both Iran and the UAE signed it four months after their foreign ministers could not agree on any text at all.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
A deposit at customs bills the importer, and Chinese memory makers are the first to feel it. The qualification calendar runs months, so they cannot buy their way out of it this quarter.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption55
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives65
- Confidence68
Section 338 of the Tariff Act has never been aimed at Canada before. The carve-outs, not the headline rate, show what Washington thinks it can afford to tax.
Reality
- Evidence26
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives58
- Confidence28
Abu Dhabi suspended trade and financial transactions with Tehran until further notice. That shuts a channel supplying more than 30% of Iranian imports, most of it third countries' goods.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives74
- Confidence55
The argument that China's deflation is a policy choice rather than fate rests on a 1998 wealth transfer that cannot be run again. What an allocator can actually verify is thinner still.
Reality
- Evidence27
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+48
- Incentives66
- Confidence46