build2 publishersConfirmed The San Francisco startup wants drone fleets to thin clouds over solar farms. The uplift range comes from its own model, the first large flight is targeted for 2027, and standard FAA rules forbid the profile.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption2
- Hype gap+70
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Freshwater storage has been declining for ten years. The WMO's new report locates the loss in the slow reserves, groundwater and glaciers, that used to absorb bad years.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives40
- Confidence68
The Met Office's Julian Heming credits this year's record El Nino for the ocean heat beneath the storm. Rapid intensification happens several times a year worldwide, and the two published accounts differ on Polo's peak winds.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 45%
- Operator
- Operator 47%
- Investor
- Investor 8%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence70
The eastern Pacific is running 2.1 C above average on weekly NOAA data, past the 2 C mark for a super event. The official strength category comes from three-month averages, and the regional outlook comes with a caveat attached.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
The World Meteorological Organization's new bulletin puts the Antarctic hole below its long-term average for a second year running, and the researchers reading the same data disagree about whether the recovery is on schedule.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
Two researchers scored 35 years of ECMWF forecasts against the observed weather and found accuracy rises with national income at every lead time out to a week. The reasons are mostly geographic and only partly a matter of spending.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives58
- Confidence62
Lakshman Srikanth and David Petley follow one fatality through the layers of interpretation that sit between a death and a database row, which is why the same typhoon can honestly carry a toll of 39 and a toll of 159 six weeks apart.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap−8
- Incentives30
- Confidence60
For the first time, a WMO update on El Nino carries almost no hedge about the tropical Pacific over the next two seasons. The harder question, what any given basin actually gets, sits in a second document.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
The forecast signal is stronger than anything in the record since 1950. The observation underneath it is 1.4C, and that gap is the part worth watching.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives44
- Confidence47