Brent crude traded at $108.70 a barrel at 7:15 a.m. Eastern on October 14, roughly $46 above the same morning last year, according to Fortune. Against an implied $62.70 a year ago that is a rise of about 73%, a gap any fuel budget set on last year's costs has to fund.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap
- Insufficient
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
IEA members agreed Oct. 7 to speed up the 400 million-barrel oil release and put diesel first, with public stocks near 1.1 billion barrels. Those stocks were above 1.2 billion in March, a fall of about 100 million, a quarter of the pledge.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Brent crude sat at $104.74 a barrel on October 7, roughly $38.60 above a year earlier, according to Fortune's daily price page. A fuel or input budget built on last year's price now pays for just under two-thirds of the barrels it assumed.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Brent fell $2.56 to $100.19 a barrel on Sept. 29, still $32.86 above a year earlier, according to Fortune. Anyone buying fuel is still paying about 49% more per barrel than last autumn, and the day's drop narrows that gap only slightly.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Brent crude sold for $104.46 a barrel on Sept. 28, up $37.13 over the past year, according to Fortune. Fuel budgets built on last year's barrel need resetting, even though the data confirms only two sessions above $100.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
GasBuddy has California's diesel average at $7.91 a gallon and the national average past $6 for the first time. The extra $700m a day Americans are paying for fuel works out near $255bn over a year.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives58
- Confidence48
Crude topped $101 and US diesel passed $200 a barrel for only the second time ever, leaving roughly $99 of refining margin between them, the piece of the shock that sits in refining capacity, not crude supply.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption63
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
Traders put 7 to 8 million barrels a day back through the Strait while US reserve draws fell about 40 percent, which leaves heavy Canadian feedstock, not Gulf crude volume, as the number that sets American diesel costs.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives66
- Confidence33