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The UK's national weather and climate service, providing forecasts, severe weather warnings, and climate data and research.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Indonesia's fires grew roughly fourfold after June as the strongest El Niño on record began forming, with emissions on track to match 2015. The event is still strengthening on 1.4C of warming, and the year's outlook leans on a short record of past El Niños.
Reality
Google DeepMind's WeatherNext Cyclones gives hurricane forecasters about an extra day of accuracy on average, according to a Nature study of past storms. So far it has one live season on record, and that season is what forecasters will lean on when the next storm strengthens fast.
Reality
Copernicus logged 21.10 C on Aug. 22, one hundredth of a degree above March 2024. The timing, not the margin, is what should move planning assumptions.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
The probability describes a ranking of Pacific ocean temperature, and the December peak it points to arrives for Southeast Asian governments that have already been drawing down reserves to cover energy and fertilizer.
Reality
The Met Office will commit to the sign of the disruption, not its address. The rice loss is already booked to a marketing year that begins after the event ends.
Reality
Copernicus says the emissions match previous major El Nino years for the date. The 1997 analogue reached 2.5 gigatonnes of CO2, roughly four months of global fossil fuel burning at then-current rates.
Reality
Buckled rail, record-low rivers and disrupted power and water are no longer tail risk. NASA's account of May to August 2026 reads like a description of normal service.
Reality