other
US government-owned emergency crude-oil stockpile created in the 1970s to cushion against supply disruptions and price shocks.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Brent traded at $102.56 a barrel on Sept. 30, up $2.37 in a day and $35.87 above a year earlier, a rise of about 54%. Any plan that counts on oil staying above $100 depends on a $2.56 margin, and a drop the size of the latest gain would nearly wipe it out.
Reality
Analysts expect Iran to drag the war past the Nov. 3 midterms, even as U.S.-escorted Middle East oil exports climb to almost 13 million barrels a day. Their case is that the escorted barrels cost Tehran leverage and leave escalation as one of its two remaining options.
Reality
Washington said it would trade strikes for sanctions. Days later it went back to shooting. For anyone pricing a Gulf voyage, mine risk in the strait was paused last week, not eliminated, and the freight and insurance numbers will keep saying so.
Perspective Coverage
7 publishersReality
Crude had a reserve to tap and refined product does not, which is why taking roughly 3% of global diesel supply out of the market has pushed the US pump average to an all-time high with the squeeze still building.
Reality
Fortune's morning check puts Brent at $99.27, about $32.60 above last September and $2.34 below yesterday. Crude is more than half the cost of a gallon, so that annual move implies over 24% on retail fuel.
Reality
Fortune priced Brent at $101.61 a barrel on Sept. 21, about $34.68 above a year earlier, for an implied base of $66.93. Crude is typically more than half the price of a gallon, and that is where the rise gets paid.
Reality
Leaving OPEC would not lift a production target Venezuela is currently exempt from, so the interim government would be trading away a vote for nothing measurable, at the moment the White House says it controls the reserves.
Reality
Crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to roughly 293 million barrels, and federal law halts routine drawdowns at 252.4 million. The gap between them is the whole tool.
Reality
The reserve fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since the 1980s, and the argument is no longer about willingness to release oil. It is about salt.
Reality
US emergency crude stocks are at their lowest since 1983, according to NPR. Prediction markets moved the odds of a record crude price by December 31 from 10% to 12.5%.
Reality