Senate Leadership Fund paused its North Carolina ads after spending over $30 million there and put seven figures into Kansas. With 53 seats and room to lose three, Republicans are now paying to protect Roger Marshall and no longer Michael Whatley.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives50
- Confidence62
Kansas bankers put about $250,000 into a roughly $1 million ad buy against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall over his swipe-fee bill. With co-lead Dick Durbin retiring, a Marshall loss would leave the Credit Card Competition Act without either lead Senate sponsor.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
Three livestock associations say ICE operations kept workers home and delayed thousands of cattle shipments, costing millions of dollars in lost revenue. Feed yards holding returned cattle pay first, and beef prices rise only if the absences last.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Crypto teams have spent a year planning around a federal token rulebook that Polymarket now prices near 14%. The blocker is a provision about the president's family business, and no trade association can redraft its way past that.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
Moreno and Lummis have cosponsored the Credit Card Competition Act, joining Durbin, Marshall, Welch and King. The bill would make banks above $100B in assets run two unaffiliated networks on credit cards.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives78
- Confidence38