David Autor's trial of 133 patent lawyers found AI improved everyone's drafts, but only seniors kept a skill gain once it was gone. Firms that expected the tool to train junior associates still have to pay for that training, on the evidence of a Google-run working paper.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
buildOne report1 publisher David Autor and Tanya Rodchenko's trial of 133 patent attorneys found AI lifted drafting quality for everyone but built stronger judgment only in seniors. Juniors' judgment scores split toward both ends with no average gain, so better drafts no longer show a firm which juniors are learning.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
Rodrigo Adao and three co-authors used 2017-19 data from all 50 states and D.C. to infer whose income U.S. tariff policy treated as most valuable. The answer sorts by industry far more than by geography.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives35
- Confidence52
In a new NBER working paper, Robert Kaestner and Cuiping Schiman followed adults with diabetes through 12 years of federal survey data and found little measurable change in depression, distress, employment or marriage.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
An Entrepreneur contributor column asks managers to list the ten recurring tasks behind a requisition and sort them into judgment, relationship, repetition and coordination work. Its supporting studies measured support agents and consultants.
Reality
- Evidence33
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives38
- Confidence55
The NBER analysis matches specialisms before it compares pay, which is the right control, but the headline gap describes the tail of the industry distribution, and the academics Nature asked all stayed.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
An NBER working paper asked 916 doctoral students and postdocs how they felt now and how they felt half a year earlier. The gap is large, and it measures stated intent, which is not the same as measuring departures.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives68
- Confidence50
The winning condition both withheld solutions and made students redo the skill three times running, so what a district can copy from this experiment is a specification for how a tutor should behave rather than a shopping list.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives65
- Confidence45
An NBER working paper puts the effect at about 34 fewer cans a year per recipient. The substitution argument economists made survives, but not in the form they made it.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence50