Iran's rial fell past 2.5 million to the dollar in Tehran trading after the country loaded no oil at its terminals in September, a first since 1979. The currency has lost 40% of its value this year while money for oil shipped before the blockade is still coming in.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Judge Melissa Damian sentenced former Rep. David Rivera to 10 years for hiding a $50 million lobbying contract from a US affiliate of Venezuela's PDVSA. The term shows what concealment costs consultants paid by foreign governments when a case runs its course, and it comes as such prosecutions have plunged.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives55
- Confidence65
President Trump's executive order requires online federal services with more than 100,000 users a year to integrate with the America.gov chatbot. It asks for that "as soon as possible", so the only dates on the table are the targets announced at Tuesday's launch.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Iran's rial fell past 2.5 million to the dollar on Tuesday, 27 days after a record 2.2 million, losing at least 12% of its dollar value. Each week the Hormuz talks stall now costs Tehran through its exchange rate and Washington through gasoline prices.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
Treasury has extended Citgo's protection from a court-ordered $9 billion sale to Elliott Management six times since January. Creditors holding that order are waiting on an administration that keeps its leverage over Caracas for as long as it leaves the license undecided.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
Prediction markets have lifted the odds on a September 23 signing from 64% to 75% while still pricing a US acquisition of Greenland at 5.9%, and the agreement itself leaves sovereignty with Denmark pending a parliamentary vote.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 57%
- Investor
- Investor 34%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
Jensen Huang, Lisa Su and Elon Musk held three of ten seats at Trump's table with Xi Jinping as the two governments bargain over chips and tariffs. Supply plans ride on those talks; the proposed AI-incident channel is still too early to plan compliance around.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
A summit Seoul thought unlikely ran for about 30 minutes in New York because the strategic investment talks finally moved, and the shipbuilding, submarine and nuclear energy files were tied to the same negotiation.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives70
- Confidence46
At the UN General Assembly he said he may annihilate the Islamic Republic if no deal comes soon, and hours later confirmed that US and Iranian officials had met.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+37
- Incentives78
- Confidence55
Two sources told the South China Morning Post that sanctions on the whole court are prepared and imminent. Thirteen officials are already designated. The institutional version reaches anyone under US jurisdiction who banks the court.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
Marco Rubio told Axios in August that Cuba's government could survive into 2028 or beyond. A Foreign Affairs account of Havana in June describes a state that is losing the capacity any transition would need.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence47
A monthlong lull had let planners treat the six-month war as a decaying risk. Then Brent went from about $80 to about $95 in the days after American forces hit rocket launchers on a Hormuz island.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives78
- Confidence46
The number travelling with the story is an 18 per cent chance of a ceasefire agreement by 31 December, which is a level rather than a move, because nobody published what the same contract cost the day before Moscow.
Reality
- Evidence26
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives70
- Confidence44
New US penalties on Cuban state mining, metal and construction landed about two months after Havana's private-investment package. Rubio's stated answer to compliance is more sanctions, every couple of weeks.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption31
- Hype gap+19
- Incentives74
- Confidence57
Sea Legend Line's new Northern Sea Route service halves Suez transit times, but the corridor carried 23 container ships last year and runs on Russian permits.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption21
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives63
- Confidence45
Recorded Future logged three CopyCop impersonations against the US-Armenian Firebird AI data center in a 20-day window, the last of them fabricating an Iranian military case for hitting it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives68
- Confidence55
Alejandro Betancourt is helping the Trump administration pick assets and partners in Caracas. With no competitive bidding and majors staying out, the beneficiaries are small US operators.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives80
- Confidence45