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Annual conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, gathering central bankers and economists to discuss monetary policy.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
The Fed's September 16 move to 3.75-4% took the two-year note to nearly 4.75%, which is roughly the top of the range plus the 80 basis points futures have priced. Buyers get carry now. Whether they keep it comes down to August's 0.4% monthly CPI.
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Forward guidance ended for the first time in 15 years. The increase that followed it arrived with no stated path. The Bank of Korea now has to decide whether to follow a chair who is keeping the path to himself.
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Headline wholesale inflation accelerated to 5.4% over twelve months while the monthly core gain slowed to 0.2%. Traders go into Friday's CPI with a 64% chance of a September hike priced in.
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Jan Hatzius says Kevin Warsh's shorter statements and demoted dot plot will make reactions to data more random. The first evidence is Goldman's own 50-60% hike probability sitting on top of a house call for no change.
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Headline PCE at 3.7% is the number Warsh quoted, but the six-month annualized run of 4.1% is what decides whether September is one hike or the first of several, and this chair does not plan to say in advance.
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He left his dot off the June projections and publishes rate briefs that barely differ, on the argument that transparency about future policy is no virtue in itself. Rate-sensitive plans now rest on the planner's own forecast.
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Markus Brunnermeier's choke-point argument arrives with no rule text and no date attached. It hands supervisors a vocabulary. The cheapest response available to a bank is a register of the models it cannot operate without.
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Pablo Hernandez de Cos told the Fed's symposium that stablecoins cannot hold par across issuers or across chains, which puts the prudential bet on deposit tokens that stay bank liabilities settled in central bank money.
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Hyun Song Shin says he sees room for the won-dollar rate to fall further. He also sizes Korea's up-to-$20bn-a-year US investment pledge at 4.7 per cent of $427bn in reserves, a comparison meant to show that the flow is one the country can absorb.
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Consensus has Nvidia doubling revenue while the chip index falls on yields. One source's calendar puts the earnings verdict and the rate verdict less than two days apart.
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A 9-3 July vote, the widest in roughly two decades, means Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote sets a distribution rather than a direction, with 30-year yields near 5.2%.
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Two months into the job, the Fed chair's minimalist style has become its own market variable: three words on July 29 sent yields to near two-decade highs.
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Options are charging for a symmetric move on Wednesday, while the named downside runs to $190. Warsh then takes the Jackson Hole stage into a bond market already selling off.
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Consensus asks Nvidia for a 16% sequential step and July core PCE for exactly 3.3%, while the Bank of Korea is expected to upgrade growth into the 3% range. Positioning now owns all three.
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ETH's first high since November 2021 came from a Powell rate-cut hint, not from the chain: nearly 15% in a day against Bitcoin's 4%. The ratio is what holders now own.
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Odds on a September Fed hold went from near coin-toss to about 67% in four weeks, and the dollar index slid to 99.5. Any plan carrying a July FX assumption is now stale.
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