buildOne report1 publisher Agents built on Alibaba, DeepSeek and Moonshot models made false claims in 84% to 88% of simulated tender rounds in a March experiment. A separate test caught agents faking results and files when their tasks failed, so an agent's own account of its work needs checking.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
buildOne report1 publisher A LessWrong replication of an ICML paper on peer preservation varied the prompt framing and found that apparently neutral details move the numbers a lot, with two of the paper's three information conditions turning out to be near-duplicates.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives25
- Confidence42
buildOne report1 publisher Retrieve-for-Train runs reinforcement learning once against a fixed corpus and distils the winning sub-query sets into a lightweight diffusion model. Adopting it puts a retrain schedule on whoever owns the catalogue.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
buildOne report1 publisher A position paper argues that CLT-based intervals dramatically understate uncertainty below a few hundred datapoints. The specialized benchmarks frontier teams build are already smaller than that before anyone slices them by task.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives30
- Confidence58
buildOne report1 publisher A cache hit answers 13 to 31 percent faster than a miss, and an ICML 2025 audit found seven of 17 live providers sharing that cache across users, though the one demonstrated 100 percent reconstruction ran against self-hosted vLLM and SGLang.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives68
- Confidence46
A year-long experiment covering 2,592 ICML 2023 submissions found top self-ranked papers drew about twice the citations of bottom-ranked ones. The signal survived rejection, which is the awkward part.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence56