FCC's Covered List has restricted new imports of humanoid and four-legged robots since July, in a market where Chinese firms ship 80 to 97% of humanoids. The cost to US builders turns on whether the list grows to cover the Chinese actuators and magnets they still buy.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives35
- Confidence35
Asus is the biggest name so far through the Conditional Approval process that the Defense and Homeland Security departments run. Applicants hand over a component-level supply chain report and a time-bound plan to build the router in the US.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
An August 26 emergency order gives the Energy Department 120 days to define risk-based review of foreign transformers, inverters and their software. The hardware takes far longer to arrive.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives40
- Confidence52
Asus and Comtrend won the same conditional approval for their routers, but theirs expires on March 6, 2028. Buyers now have to check which series and which date cover the box they are ordering.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Counterpoint puts five Chinese makers at 86% of the 22,000 humanoids shipped in the first half of 2026. That is the cost curve the Covered List and the new tariffs do not touch while they reprice US bills of materials.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption61
- Hype gap+9
- Incentives68
- Confidence57
OpenMind's readiness index prices the counterfactual at $85,000 a unit. An FCC rule barring foreign-made robots from US authorization turns that arithmetic into a budget line.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption27
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives72
- Confidence43
The Flight Kit had no radio and needed no FCC ID. The camera did, and the December Covered List names cameras, so the seam meant to preserve US access sat in the wrong half.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption47
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives70
- Confidence63
The July 28 Covered List addition blocks new authorizations for foreign-made robots. The cost multiplier now being quoted comes from an index that had not yet been published.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives74
- Confidence41
Robo Inc. launched 13 days after covered foreign robots lost their path to equipment authorization. Long Island production is scheduled for January 2027.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives68
- Confidence41
The Verge bought a DJI Osmo Pocket 4 Pro for $659.28 on Temu, shipped from a US warehouse. Any hardware policy that treats an import ban as an availability ban is already out of date.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption63
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives55
- Confidence64
A vendor superlative has collided with a federal percentage, and the percentage wins. For anyone shipping connected hardware, country-of-origin copy is now a testable compliance assertion.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives66
- Confidence48