Burning Glass Institute economist Gad Levanon found real output in white-collar sectors rose 16% since end-2022 as employment fell roughly 2%. Growth there has stopped bringing hiring, but the economists quoted disagree on why.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Jobs for the Future and the Burning Glass Institute expect 1.7 million US skilled-trade openings every year through 2035. Only 600,000 are net new jobs across the whole period, so AI data-center demand sits on top of a shortage driven mostly by replacing an aging workforce.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
Ford and JPMorgan aim to put up to $2 billion into Michigan's suppliers over ten years, split between Ford contracts and bank financing. Both halves are ceilings aimed at order books, while the partners' own report finds most apprentice starters are not in a trade five years on.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence40
Ford, BlackRock, Google and Carhartt's trades alliance puts U.S. skilled-trades openings at 1.7 million a year through 2035, across 124 occupations. At the report's training rate the country falls about 765,000 workers short each year, and whether the fix is recruiting or retention depends on what that rate counts.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence40
US nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 86,000 jobs in a year, with much of the demand coming from data-center construction. Operators hiring electricians now compete against one sector's boom, and economists disagree on how long it lasts.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives40
- Confidence55