Sandra Chapman reports in The Astrophysical Journal that solar maxima end in a sharp sunspot cutoff whose count predicts the next cycle, and her own forecast for Cycle 26 follows the drop she expects in 2028.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Stephen Kane let hypothetical moons evolve around a Venus that turns once every 243 Earth days, and in most runs they spiralled inward and hit the planet. He says Venus needed no catastrophe to end up moonless.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence58
Zihao Wu and colleagues report a candidate overdensity of 18 galaxies at a redshift of about 10.5 in JWST's JADES survey, with photometric hints that the group has cleared an ionized bubble roughly 6 comoving megaparsecs in radius.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives35
- Confidence62
Eleanor Cornish and Tyler Robinson put a wind-roughened ocean into the rfast atmospheric tool and found the specular flash still separable from a dry planet at 120 degrees, ten degrees below earlier estimates.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives38
- Confidence62
Astronomers scheduled an X-ray observation to land on a predicted outburst of AT 2016blu and saw emission consistent with accretion onto a compact companion. It is the first luminous blue variable reported with such a partner.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives40
- Confidence58
Five papers in The Astrophysical Journal report the helium made in the universe's first five minutes with 0.5% uncertainty, three times tighter than the previous standard, from 15 chemically pristine dwarf galaxies.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives58
- Confidence58
The Carnegie Mellon team has released a 13.5-billion-year hydrodynamic run that ends at the present day, which lets JWST's crowd of early massive black holes be tested against a model that also has to produce a recognizable today.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
A SPHERE/VLT detection at 6 sigma places a faint companion at the separation two papers predicted for December 2024. Confirmation waits on catching it on the far side.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence52
Push the Saguaro galaxy's arms below Webb's detection limit and what is left looks like a little red dot, according to a study published on July 29 in The Astrophysical Journal.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives65
- Confidence45