Seoul apartment prices rose 10.42% in the year after the October 15 lending curbs, 1.6 times the 6.61% of the year before, Korea Real Estate Board data show. Jeonse price growth quadrupled as a residency rule pulled rental flats off the market.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence58
President Lee Jae-myung vowed to keep fighting property speculation as Seoul's Gangnam-area apartment listings rose 5,408 to 27,590 after August's tax plan. Prime Seoul prices now turn on whether those sellers cut their asks to meet buyers.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
Renewals hit 50.8% of Seoul apartment jeonse contracts through August as new leases fell 38%, though renewal numbers slipped about 8%. With lease listings down about a sixth and completions set to fall, the share measures how few homes are coming up to let.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Seoul apartment jeonse listings fell 16.7% in a year to 19,853, with the cheaper northeast and southwest accounting for about 72% of the 3,979 lost. Whether owner-occupancy rules or falling completions removed them decides how much stock easing the rules would bring back.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
The average Seoul officetel jeonse deposit reached 237.37 million won in August, the highest since records began in 2011, and the spread between a new contract and a renewal now runs to 200 million won as apartment jeonse listings fall 21 per cent.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Seoul's apartment leases above 3 million won a month rose 9.7% to 6,570 through September 22, and every added contract came from the 22 districts outside Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa, where the count fell by three.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption80
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives45
- Confidence65
Discounted listings have spread from Gangnam to Yeouido's redevelopment blocks, and a September membership deadline is doing more of the pricing than the tax schedule is.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption47
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence38