Brent fell $2.56 to $100.19 a barrel on Sept. 29, still $32.86 above a year earlier, according to Fortune. Anyone buying fuel is still paying about 49% more per barrel than last autumn, and the day's drop narrows that gap only slightly.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Brent crude sold for $104.46 a barrel on Sept. 28, up $37.13 over the past year, according to Fortune. Fuel budgets built on last year's barrel need resetting, even though the data confirms only two sessions above $100.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Caracas puts the bill above $100 billion for reserves the White House says more than double America's, a stock claim with no schedule attached while the only new barrels come from Chevron tuning old wells.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 50%
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+71
- Incentives82
- Confidence63
Crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to roughly 293 million barrels, and federal law halts routine drawdowns at 252.4 million. The gap between them is the whole tool.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+36
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence33
The reserve fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since the 1980s, and the argument is no longer about willingness to release oil. It is about salt.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives74
- Confidence62
US emergency crude stocks are at their lowest since 1983, according to NPR. Prediction markets moved the odds of a record crude price by December 31 from 10% to 12.5%.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives72
- Confidence28