Growth lines and isotopes in one giant clam shell from Jiigurru put northern Great Barrier Reef summers around 1800 at 0.9 to 1.2C cooler than in 1995-2015. Winters were nearly unchanged, so this site's warming has come mostly in the hot season, on the evidence of one animal.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives35
- Confidence50
Jonathan Cedeno's Guayaquil survey found water off Ecuador up to 6°C warmer at 40 meters over ten weeks, as fishers along the Pacific coast land less. Surface water warmed 2.5 to 3°C, and so far the damage is recorded in skippers' own accounts from four countries, with El Niño's peak still ahead.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Arizona State-led researchers built a plankton food-chain index that explains Bermuda's spiny lobster catch rates better than four simpler predictors. Officials at Bermuda's environment department say it can warn them of trouble in the larval stage before the catch shows it.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Copernicus logged 21.10 C on Aug. 22, one hundredth of a degree above March 2024. The timing, not the margin, is what should move planning assumptions.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 50%
- Investor
- Investor 32%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence62
Elena Terzic and Ivica Vilibic compiled cruise and float measurements from 1950 to 2025 and found the Mediterranean's warming and salinification accelerating far below the surface layer, fastest of all in the deep Adriatic.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence62
The Marine Biological Association's case for the boom rests on underwater video, eggs, juveniles and 120 surveyed divers, while the shellfish landings that fell alongside it are so far timing rather than attributed cause.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives42
- Confidence55
A mesocosm experiment found that 4 degrees Celsius of warming cut the hard-to-degrade share of seagrass dissolved organic carbon by about 28 percent on average.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives60
- Confidence52