The 0.02% timing overhead comes from IonQ's own simulations of 88 memory blocks and magic factories, posted to arXiv. For anyone working through a cryptographic inventory, the readiness deadlines stand where they were.
Reality
- Evidence33
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives80
- Confidence55
IonQ researchers report a real-time error-correction decoder that added under 0.3% to runtime at a CNOT error rate of 10^-4, and under 12% at five times that rate, on workloads simulated against the company's own proposed architecture.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption9
- Hype gap+36
- Incentives71
- Confidence41
The Quantum Genesis Q Competition asks companies for machines that run hundreds of millions of fault-tolerant operations on at least 100 logical qubits, and $200 million of the $215 million sits in prize pools.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence66
The Sandia-led QUOPS benchmark rates a quantum computer by the largest useful circuit it can finish and how fast it finishes it. Across Google, IBM and Quantinuum machines the best score was 1,824, against a chemistry target of 250 million.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives48
- Confidence66
CUDA-Q Logical lets researchers swap error-correction codes and hardware architectures and recompute the resource estimate. Sandia's QUOPS benchmark for logical-qubit readiness now reaches the industry through NVIDIA's platform.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives90
- Confidence45
Nvidia's CUDA-Q Logical simulates logical qubits, error-correction codes and QPU architectures side by side. The two customer results it launched with come from an architecture startup and a national lab, and both are models.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives84
- Confidence46
Superion 256 opens for orders with deliveries due in 2027. The six tapeouts IonQ ran in half a year say more about whether its 2028 fault-tolerance date is real than the qubit count does.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+44
- Incentives80
- Confidence46
The 26-day figure is a runtime rather than a date, and it works out to one logical Toffoli every 57.6 milliseconds on trapped-ion hardware whose scale IonQ's roadmap does not reach until 2028. No error rates are published to check it.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives80
- Confidence40
IBM has closed the HRL Laboratories deal behind a 2029 fault-tolerant target. For anyone holding ciphertext that must outlive the decade, the vendor's date is now the planning date.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption41
- Hype gap+46
- Incentives74
- Confidence38
UC Davis researchers report in PRX Quantum a way to simulate noisy, high-fidelity magic-state preparation at polynomial cost. Error budgets can be tested rather than assumed.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives38
- Confidence55
The trapped-ion company signed a joint development deal with contract manufacturer Quanta Computer for hardware infrastructure. No new processor, no volumes, no timetable, and that is the tell.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives62
- Confidence41