Foreign Affairs essay argues Iran's leaders, nervous in private despite claiming victory in the war begun February 28, will escalate against energy markets. Its view that no settlement would last makes the Hormuz energy shock a planning problem measured in years.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence25
Brent traded at $102.56 a barrel on Sept. 30, up $2.37 in a day and $35.87 above a year earlier, a rise of about 54%. Any plan that counts on oil staying above $100 depends on a $2.56 margin, and a drop the size of the latest gain would nearly wipe it out.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
SK Innovation E&S is shipping 1.3 million tons a year of Barossa LNG from Darwin to South Korea, 14 years after it first invested in the field. The volume is secured for 20 years, equals about 3% of Korea's yearly LNG imports and is arriving while the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption65
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Korean refiners lost 5 trillion won under the government's oil price cap through June, above the 4.2 trillion won in contingency funds allocated for it. Whether the state budget or the refiners' own books carry the 800 billion won shortfall decides if the cap is a fiscal problem or an earnings one.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Seoul's first statutory resource security plan promises a 50% Middle East crude share by 2035 and 13 more state-managed minerals, but the only money on the table this year is a freight subsidy capped at the levies refiners paid.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
Both routes that carried Gulf barrels around the closed Strait of Hormuz have now been hit, one by a drone and the other by a Houthi takeover of the Red Sea chokepoint. Oil is at $110 a barrel.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption63
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives44
- Confidence46
Qatar sent nearly every LNG cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, and very few have made the trip since March. Oman's exports are flowing and Muscat is mediating anyway, so exposure explains only part of the urgency.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives66
- Confidence52
Canada's search for partners outside Washington now has a work order behind it, because the two governments told their space agencies and defence ministries to share infrastructure. The gas Macron asked for still waits on contracts.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Brent averaged about $69 a barrel last year and trades near $100 now, roughly 45% higher, six months into the war on Iran. Bank of America's base case for the second half is $83, with a $150 tail if energy infrastructure is hit.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
The September Oil Market Report puts world demand down 2.5 mb/d this year and supply back up 8 mb/d in 2027, an ending that looks loose while US diesel trades above $200 a barrel and Gulf diesel exports sit at a quarter of their pre-war rate.
Publishers:iea.org
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives40
- Confidence56
Saudi Arabia has taken one of this year's main Hormuz workarounds out of service. The case for paying to keep spare routes and switchable inputs on hand now gets tested with one option fewer in the stack.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives70
- Confidence40
WTI at about $102 has widened the gap between Singapore product prices and the capped price Korean refiners may charge at home. The industry puts its losses at 5 trillion won. No first settlement has been completed.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption65
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives75
- Confidence50
Storage sits at 65.5%, about 742 terawatt-hours and the lowest for the time of year in 15 years, and the gas the bloc still has to buy to reach even the eased target gets dearer every week it waits for the US-Iran war to end.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption71
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives57
- Confidence53
The doomsday scenarios never arrived, and because nothing broke, Asia's importers are funding new routes and new suppliers out of capital budgets rather than waiting out a spike they could have hedged. Halving Hormuz still has an if attached.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives58
- Confidence45
Crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to roughly 293 million barrels, and federal law halts routine drawdowns at 252.4 million. The gap between them is the whole tool.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+36
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence33
The world added 600 terawatt-hours of solar generation last year, which the IEA calls the largest single-year jump for any electricity technology. The cost curve behind it is 47 years old.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption88
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence66
Oversupply, bypass pipelines and full storage absorbed what the IEA called the largest oil supply disruption on record. Those cushions are thinner now, and a second phase lands on a drawn-down system.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption64
- Hype gap−8
- Incentives42
- Confidence45