Topic
Global markets for buying and selling crude oil, where prices move on supply disruptions, OPEC output, geopolitics, and inventory levels.
Crude opened Monday higher after President Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal, with December Brent at $98.69 and November WTI at $93.78. Brent has won back 87% of last week's drop and WTI only 44%, held back by talk of a U.S. diesel export ban.
Reality
WTI has not fallen five days in a row since February. What set the run off was a three-hour meeting in New York plus Iran's conditional offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pump prices are still at record highs.
Reality
Drone attacks shut the East-West pipeline that moves about 4 million barrels a day to Yanbu. WTI added 2.5% to $102, and the industry sources Reuters cited cannot agree whether repairs run five to six weeks or less.
Reality
The International Energy Agency expects a demand shock this year comparable to the pandemic's, and traders are pricing supply anyway, because the missing barrels show up in inventories while the missing demand shows up only in forecasts.
Reality
The national average reached $4.15 on Friday, above the 2012 Labor Day record of $3.82 but below May's $4.56 peak. For planning, the numbers that bite are August's $4.09 average and the $2.36 gap between states.
Reality
The reserve fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since the 1980s, and the argument is no longer about willingness to release oil. It is about salt.
Reality