University of Miami researchers mapped Guam's Tumon Bay from the air and measured a 59% decline in massive coral cover after Typhoon Mawar. Maps that cover a whole bay at the scale of single colonies could guide where restoration money goes, if the classifier holds up on reef it was never trained on.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Cornell's WildFin team found standard vision models still misread fish behavior after tuning on nine hours of reef video that took about 2,000 hours to make. The team blames scarce wildlife footage in model training and is asking ecologists to release their field video, a remedy this study has not yet tested.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives50
- Confidence45
Southampton's Black Hole Hunters project wants volunteers to vet AI-screened telescope data for black holes beyond the roughly 70 whose locations are known. A volunteer's flag picks a target for telescope follow-up, and the team counts a discovery only once it detects gravitational self-lensing.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence40
University of Sydney researchers have split Australia's Anchiale stick insects from two species into five, one laying eggs with a lidlike structure new to the group. The insects already had more than 1000 citizen-science records, and telling them apart took DNA analysis checked against museum specimens.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives30
- Confidence55
UConn researchers surveyed 233 plant enthusiasts and found they want expert training to identify emerging plant diseases and invasive species. Because respondents came through garden clubs and extension newsletters, the survey shows willing helpers exist but cannot size demand across the country.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence40
Volunteers buried more than 2,000 pairs at about 1,000 Swiss sites and dug them up two months later, and land use predicted how much fabric vanished better than most of the soil chemistry measured. That makes cotton a usable, if coarse, field assay.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 28%
- Operator
- Operator 62%
- Investor
- Investor 10%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives30
- Confidence60
SLF's Flora Raetica project is resurveying Graubünden's plants on 1,104 one-hectare squares and comparing them with records made in the early 1930s. So far, the evidence that plants are moving uphill comes from one plot near Davos and a treeline estimate from co-leader Christian Rixen.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
Sydney residents weight their bin lids and jam the hinges, and the birds still get in, so Lucy Aplin's team has taken a plexiglass box of unfamiliar latches to the Royal Botanic Garden to see what one cockatoo can work out alone.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives62
- Confidence58
An introduced population of Macquarie River turtles is moving through the Manning catchment in New South Wales. The researchers now tracking it with water samples are monitoring a species that two other states list as threatened.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
The site holds about 17,000 tagged feeding observations covering some 5,700 species, contributed by roughly 2,000 observers in more than 100 countries. The team is still building tools to validate submissions.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Joel Lapointe noticed a circle near Lake Marsal while planning a 2024 camping trip in Quebec. A floatplane and a 50-metre wade later, Gordon Osinski's team found the shatter cones that decided its origin.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
Cameron Peace's lab at Washington State matched leaves collected from old Maine farms to an apple ancestor his pedigree had inferred but never sampled. The tree that supplied them is still standing.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
NC State researchers surveyed 1,854 Americans and found 60% or more interested in science or convinced it benefits society, 43% calling it credible and 39% feeling they belong in it. The fix they propose rests on about 260 self-selected participants.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
Sarah Meier and Eric Strobl matched wildfire particulate data to volunteer bird counts on about 2,800 US survey routes from 2008 to 2022, and the diversity dip held on routes where nothing had burned within five kilometres.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives42
- Confidence58
NASA's Artifact InSPECtor asks the public to mark cosmic-ray hits, stray glints and electronics quirks in Euclid's spectrograph data, and those classifications will be used to sharpen the software built to remove them.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Researchers at NC State mixed AI-generated pictures of 20 North American trees into real iNaturalist and Auto Arborist photos. The synthetic images helped the recognition model only in the runs where real images were limited.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives50
- Confidence55
The Marine Biological Association's case for the boom rests on underwater video, eggs, juveniles and 120 surveyed divers, while the shellfish landings that fell alongside it are so far timing rather than attributed cause.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives42
- Confidence55
A New South Wales survey detected Unicapsula seriolae in 38.9% of yellowtail kingfish, and 71.4% of the infected fish never turned mushy after cooking.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives58
- Confidence48