OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate is nearing $70 billion, up more than 70% since the quarter began, Axios reported. That is only about $5 billion above Anthropic's July rate, and Anthropic's figure has kept rising, so ranking the two labs has to wait for their prospectuses.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 15%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 60%
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Anthropic is seeking a record $2 trillion listing on 2025 revenue of $4.6 billion and a $42 billion net loss, according to Reuters. The price it gets for the roughly 5 percent it is expected to sell in November decides whether Amazon and Google book a gain or a loss on their stakes.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Anthropic and OpenAI each launched a model on Tuesday that repackages capability their flagships already had. The faster release calendar behind those launches is mostly a pricing story for the people who buy them.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives78
- Confidence62
Open interest in cash-settled Anthropic perpetuals has reached $79.27 million, with more than $20 million trading in a day, against a company that told the SEC in June it had not fixed a share count or a price.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption56
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives74
- Confidence46
The collapsed $6bn-$7bn deal is being read as a verdict on Decart's scalability, though no account of what diligence found has surfaced. The firmer number is what the founders passed up for unpriced Anthropic stock.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives62
- Confidence37
The National Retail Federation counts 61% of shoppers using AI tools this back-to-school season. The only figure on what that does to order size, 30% to 40%, comes from a vendor that sells brands their discoverability.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption56
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives78
- Confidence46
Sarah Friar told staff an IPO is a milestone, not a finish line, in the same week OpenAI said it slowed scaling and the WSJ reported 18% quarterly revenue growth. Capital is the constraint being managed.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption61
- Hype gap+27
- Incentives79
- Confidence58
A supervoting share class and a board-appointing trust would let seven founders with a modest combined stake keep the final word after a listing that could be among the largest ever.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives68
- Confidence48