Topic
SF2/SF2P/SF2P+/SF2Z 2nm family, SF1.4 slipping to 2029, and SF1A 1nm-class plans around 2030.
Counterpoint puts TSMC at 73% of second-quarter foundry revenue and Samsung Foundry at 5.9%. Because that share is weighted by leading-edge prices, it measures the scarcity of advanced capacity as much as the volume of it.
Reality
Researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences report an early sub-3nm transistor route built on lithography tools China can still import. Whether export controls cap advanced nodes or only slow them turns on wafer-level results still to come.
Reality
The pull-forward at Samsung's Texas fab is sourced to unnamed industry people; the dated company statements are an April equipment ceremony and a July tape-out. TrendForce puts Samsung 0.5 point ahead of SMIC in second-quarter foundry share.
Reality
The Dimensity 9600 Pro is MediaTek's first processor on TSMC's 2nm process, and the case for taking premium handset share from Qualcomm rests on a single prompt-processing figure.
Reality
The chip that carries the valuation has been validated on TSMC's 2nm process but not finalised for production, no customer has been named, and the three funds that set the new price were already shareholders.
Reality
Alphabet's growth fund led the round and set the price at $3bn, a bet on a coherent chip whose latency and power advantages nobody outside Celero has measured, and on its reach inside the rack.
Reality
Leaked internal tests put the Exynos 2700 ahead of an unshipped Snapdragon. The number that matters is the 7.44 trillion won Samsung spent on outside application processors in six months.
Reality
Mass production at 2nm and a $16.5 billion Tesla contract have not changed the arithmetic. With no standalone P&L, the foundry's shortfall is absorbed by a memory business posting record profits.
Reality