Kearny lost 85 percent of its Gila River allotment after a 1 percent snowpack

A snowpack figure of 1 percent is one date in one basin ^[2]. The cut that followed was a human decision: the Gila River water commissioner reduced what Kearny may draw by about 85 percent ^[3]. That leaves the town roughly 15 percent of a normal allotment ^[1]. Across the Southwest as a whole, annual precipitation from 2000 to 2021 averaged 8.3 percent below the previous 50 years ^[19]. The snowpack reading describes one basin on one March date; the 8.3 percent figure describes six states and part of northern Mexico over 22 years ^[8][19]. The Science News account does not say whether Kearny's taps ran dry after the April announcement.

Kearny's allotment is set on the Gila ^[1]. The reduction the federal government announced in August applies to Colorado River water allocated to Arizona, California and Nevada, roughly 20 percent over the next two years, with reductions of up to 40 percent if conditions do not improve ^[17]. Forty percent would be twice the cut now in force ^[3]. Agriculture is likely to absorb most of it, and municipal officials in Phoenix and Tucson say residential users in many cities may see their bills rise sharply ^[18].

The warming half of the diagnosis is the better established one. Kevin Anchukaitis, who runs the University of Arizona Laboratory for Tree-Ring Research in Tucson, says heat from human-caused climate change creates a thirsty atmosphere that dries the landscape more effectively ^[10]. The rainfall half is open. The shortfall may simply be bad luck ^[11]. A 2025 Nature paper, which Science News describes as controversial, argues that humans have disrupted a Pacific Ocean cycle that historically brought wet spells into the Southwest ^[12]. Brad Udall says that if the paper is right, the outlook for places like Kearny is poor, and the megadrought may be locked in for the foreseeable future ^[13]. The two explanations disagree about whether wet years should be expected to return at all ^[11][12].

Duration has been measured carefully. Tree ring and soil moisture data reported in Nature Climate Change in 2022 found the drought the most severe the Southwest has endured in more than a millennium ^[20]. An updated dataset provided to Science News puts the megadrought at 27 years and keeps the ranking: the driest such period since the year 800 ^[21]. That extends the 2022 analysis by about five years without changing the order ^[5]. A drought beginning in 2000 and running 27 years reaches 2027, which is 1,227 years after 800 and consistent with the 1,200-year figure scientists cite ^[2][4][8]. "We're 27 years into it, and it shows no signs of letting up," said Udall, a water and climate researcher at Colorado State University in Fort Collins ^[9].

Norm Warren has cut back on laundry and showers, let his lawn die, and now waters his other plants with used dishwater ^[23]. "We feel the urgency of it," he said ^[22]. "The town is really trying." ^[24]