87,000 firms, 875 roll-ups: the succession math in accounting favours the buyer

CPA Practice Advisor has put arithmetic to a problem the accounting trade has been describing qualitatively for years: about 87,000 US accounting firms, roughly 75% of CPAs set to retire within 15 years, and 30,000 to 40,000 firms expected to change hands over the next several years as owners exit ^[1][2][3]. That is between 34% and 46% of the entire firm population going to market inside the same window ^[4], and price in any market is set by whichever side is scarce.

The units are small. Those 30,000 to 40,000 firms represent more than $20bn in annual revenue ^[3], which works out to roughly $500,000 to $667,000 of revenue per practice ^[5]. At that size the thing being sold is a job with clients attached. The publication's own diagnosis is that most of the value sits in recurring revenue resting on trust, that clients who have worked with the same accountant for years still call the owner directly when something is urgent, and that while the owner is present the model survives but once the owner wants to exit the structure collapses ^[6][7]. An asset whose cash flows walk out with the founder is not an asset a disciplined buyer pays a premium for.

The buyer pool is thinner than the consolidation narrative implies. The International Federation of Accountants counted 177 direct private-equity investments facilitating a further 875 roll-up acquisitions between 2015 and 2025 ^[8]. That is about five add-ons per platform ^[9] and about 88 acquisitions a year ^[10]. Set 875 completed deals over a decade against 30,000 to 40,000 firms needing to transact in a few years and private equity has absorbed something like 2% to 3% of the coming supply ^[11]. Nor is the gap likely to close at the bottom of the market: acquisition costs such as diligence, legal work, integration and client communication are fixed, so the economics tend to favour larger targets, and a profitable small practice can still be hard to transact if too much of its value depends on one retiring founder ^[12].

The traditional exits are narrowing at the same time. Selling the book to a younger CPA, folding into a peer firm, or handing to a family member all still exist, but at a diminishing rate, with adult children increasingly declining to take over ^[13]. The pipeline explains part of it. The AICPA's 2025 Trends report found accounting bachelor's and master's degrees fell 6.6% in the 2023-24 academic year ^[14]. Four-year undergraduate enrolment rose 8.9% year on year in spring 2026, but that rebound takes time to move through the profession ^[15]. Meanwhile the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects about 124,200 openings for accountants and auditors each year through 2034, many created by people changing occupation or leaving the labour force ^[16]. The junior who might have bought your practice is being bid for as an employee instead.

The technology argument is the most honest part of the piece and the least decisive. Software and AI taking over categorisation, reconciliation, data entry and document collection frees accountant time for the interpretive work that built client trust in the first place, and technology cannot manufacture long-standing relationships or institutional judgment, so a well-run firm with loyal clients may be more attractive to a technology-forward buyer ^[17][18]. That improves transferability at the margin. It does not change the ratio of sellers to buyers.

Watch whether the 8.9% enrolment increase persists into graduating classes, and whether the private-equity add-on count moves materially above roughly 88 deals a year ^[15][10]. Note also what the source does not supply: multiples. Owners being quoted a number should ask what the comparable was, and how much of it was contingent on staying three more years.