Standard Chartered gives stablecoins until 2030 to reach $2 trillion from a base of $309 billion
Standard Chartered moved its $2 trillion stablecoin forecast from 2028 to 2030 as supply stalled near $309 billion. Geoffrey Kendrick, its head of digital assets research, ties the stall to weak crypto markets, and Allium data show trading still outweighs payments.
The Investor · Invest desk
Key figures: about 60% a year growth needed to reach $2 trillion by 2030; 6% supply growth over a year, per Allium, to $303 billion in August; about 154% a year would have been needed for the earlier 2028 date.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth needed to reach $2 trillion by 2030, about | 60% a year | 22 | |
| Supply growth over a year, per Allium | 6% | to $303 billion in August | 6 |
| Growth needed by 2028 | 154% a year, about | 23 |
What happened
- Kendrick said supply has stayed in a range of $300 billion to $320 billion over the past year.
- Cryptopolitan reported monthly velocity doubling from 15 to 30, with USDC rising from 45 to 80 while USDT held near 7.
- Allium counted $85 trillion in on-chain transfers between January and August 2026, of which only $4 trillion could be attributed to economic activity.
- Treasury proposed rules in August limiting US stablecoin issuance to federally or state-authorized issuers, with licensing expected from January 2027.
Why it matters
- constraint Even after the two-year delay, the target needs supply to grow roughly ten times faster than the 6% Allium measured over the past year.
- contradiction Kendrick blames the crypto cycle for the stall, yet Allium puts 69% of economic activity in trading, so the cycle and the usage mix may be one problem. Neither source draws that link.
- exposure USDT is about 61% of the supply DefiLlama counts, and Kendrick warned it could lose ground if regulators follow the US lead and bank-backed competitors gain.
Keeping the number and moving the date changes the pace the target demands. Counting from 2026, the year of the activity data in the reports [17], growing from $309 billion [2] to $2 trillion [1] is a 6.5-fold increase [21]: about 154% a year if it lands in 2028 [23], about 60% a year if it lands in 2030 [22]. Allium put supply at $303 billion in August, up 6% in twelve months [6]. Cryptopolitan reported that the bank is not lowering its target [14], and Kendrick's case for patience is that the stall is cyclical, the product of negative developments in crypto markets [4].
Usage has not stalled. Monthly transfers reached about $10 trillion in 2026 [7], and $10 trillion divided by $309 billion is about 32 turns a month [25], which squares with the velocity figure of 30 [8]. Kendrick's point, as Cointelegraph relays it, is that existing stablecoins are changing hands more frequently as their use cases diversify [12]. The target, though, is a market capitalization figure [1], and the same coins turning over faster add nothing to it.
How much of that turnover is spending is a separate question. Of the activity Allium counted as economic, 69% was trade and 13% was payments [18], and payments reached at least $401 billion, up 42% [19]. (Those figures do not obviously match: 13% of $4 trillion is $520 billion [27], and the Cryptopolitan summary does not say how the two reconcile.) At the retail end, Visa's on-chain research put quarterly velocity at 13.56 in late 2025 and at 0.08 for transfers below $250, which were less than 1% of activity [20].
The bank expects the sharpest contest in developed-market payments, where USDG, M^0 and multibank stablecoin networks are pursuing alternatives to existing payment infrastructure [13]. "Issues like yield capture will ultimately determine how this sector plays out," Kendrick told The Block [9].
We think the stall and the trading mix are one cycle seen in two data sets (or rather, the trading mix is how the cycle reaches supply, which is the more interesting version), though neither source draws that link and Kendrick's stated cause is the cycle alone. A crypto recovery would lift supply and keep 2030 in reach without testing the payments case. Bank-backed issuers could add supply at Tether's expense once licensing starts [10]. And if supply is still inside the $300 billion to $320 billion band [3] when US licensing is expected to start in January 2027 [11], we would stop calling the stall cyclical.
What to watch
- The next DefiLlama or Allium supply reading: a move above $320 billion would be the first break from the year-long band, and the split between trading and payments would show what drove it.
- Whether the FDIC finalizes its proposal to exclude stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance.
- Whether FASB finalizes its August balance-sheet proposal, which Tempo said could make stablecoins easier for businesses to use in payments and settlement.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence58
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Standard Chartered now expects stablecoin market capitalization to reach $2 trillion by 2030, two years later than initially projected (the earlier date was 2028).
- [2]
The stablecoin market plateaued at roughly $309 billion this year.
- [3]
Kendrick said stablecoin supply has remained in a range of $300 billion to $320 billion over the previous year.
- [4]
Kendrick considers the supply stall cyclical, a result of negative developments in crypto markets.
- [5]
According to DefiLlama, stablecoin supply is around $303.7 billion, including $184 billion in USDT and $73 billion in USDC.
- [6]
Allium reported stablecoin supply of $303 billion in August, an increase of just 6% in a year, with Tether and Circle holding 85% market share.
- [7]
Monthly stablecoin transfers reached approximately $10 trillion in 2026, against $4 trillion in 2025, and peaked at $19 trillion in May.
- [8]
Monthly velocity doubled from 15 to 30; USDC rose from 45 to 80 while USDT remained steady at around 7.
- [9]
"Issues like yield capture will ultimately determine how this sector plays out," Kendrick told The Block.
- [10]
Kendrick warned USDT could lose ground "if global regulators were to closely follow the lead" of U.S. rules, encouraging bank-backed competition.
- [11]
In August the Treasury Department proposed rules restricting stablecoin issuance in the United States to federally or state-authorized issuers, with licensing requirements expected to take effect in January 2027.
- [12]
Kendrick said stablecoin usage continues to expand despite slower supply growth, with existing stablecoins changing hands more frequently as use cases diversify.
- [13]
The bank expects the most intense competition in developed market payments, where challengers such as USDG, M^0 and multibank stablecoin networks are pursuing alternatives to existing payment infrastructure.
- [14]
Standard Chartered is not lowering its $2 trillion target.
- [15]
A Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation proposal would exclude stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance.
- [16]
In August the Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed an update that could affect how companies report certain stablecoins on their balance sheets; Tempo said the changes could make it easier for businesses to use stablecoins for payments and settlement without additional accounting complications.
- [17]
Allium found that only $4 trillion in economic activity can be attributed to the $85 trillion transferred on chain between January and August 2026.
- [18]
Of the economic activity Allium identified, trade was responsible for 69% and payments for 13%.
- [19]
Payments reached at least $401 billion, growing 42%.
- [20]
Visa research using on-chain analytics measured quarterly velocity at 13.56 in late 2025 but just 0.08 for retail-sized transfers below $250, which represented less than 1% of activity.
- [21]
The $2 trillion target is about 6.5 times the $309 billion base.
- [22]
Reaching $2 trillion from $309 billion by 2030, counting four years from 2026, requires compound growth of about 60% a year.
- [23]
Reaching $2 trillion from $309 billion by 2028, counting two years from 2026, would have required compound growth of about 154% a year.
- [24]
The roughly 60% annual growth the 2030 path needs is about ten times the 6% growth Allium recorded over a year.
- [25]
About $10 trillion of monthly transfers on about $309 billion of supply is roughly 32 turns a month.
- [26]
USDT is about 61% of the $303.7 billion supply DefiLlama counts.
- [27]
A 13% payments share of $4 trillion in economic activity is $520 billion, against the reported figure of at least $401 billion.
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Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cointelegraph.comStandard Chartered pushes $2T stablecoin forecast to 2030 as transaction volumes grow
1 article · October 14, 2026
- cryptopolitan.comStandard Chartered delays $2T stablecoin forecast to 2030 as supply stalls
1 article · October 14, 2026
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