Invest5 publishers3 min readPublished
Existing holders take 73% of the stock on offer in Oura's $2.2 billion IPO
Existing holders are selling 36.5 million of the 50 million shares on offer. Oura's own 13.5 million would net about $532.6 million at the $42 midpoint, ahead of pricing on September 29 at up to $14.1 billion.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Fortune reports net income of $60.8 million for the nine months to June, while Gulf News reports a $924.3 million net loss for the same period, tied partly to a deemed dividend on preferred stock.
- At $44 a share on more than 320.9 million shares outstanding, Oura would carry a market capitalisation near $14.12 billion, against the roughly $11 billion it was worth after its 2025 Series E.
- Eli Lilly has indicated interest in up to $100 million of stock and Dragoneer in up to $300 million, with pricing expected on September 29 under the Nasdaq ticker OURA.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- contradiction The two published bottom lines for the same nine months are $985.1 million apart, so an investor deciding whether Oura is profitable is choosing between accounts rather than reading one.
- decision With 73% of the stock secondary and the 7.5 million share option also coming from holders, the structure favours liquidity for pre-IPO investors over cash on Oura's balance sheet.
- cost Buyers at the top of the range pay about 8.8 times annualised revenue for a business four-fifths of whose sales are hardware, a price that needs the 74% growth rate to persist.
- exposure Anchor demand is not all fresh money: Dragoneer, which Fortune names among backers seeking a return, has indicated up to $300 million of buying, so the book's depth rests on who else turns up.
Put Fortune's figure next to Gulf News's and the same nine months to June are $985.1 million apart: net income of $60.8 million in one account [3], a net loss of $924.3 million in the other [20][1]. Gulf News says the wider loss partly reflects a deemed dividend tied to redeemable convertible preferred stock [20]. The year-earlier pair sits the same way, $1.6 million of income against a $182.8 million loss, a gap of $184.4 million [3][20][2]. An investor pricing this book off earnings needs to know which line the $60.8 million sits on.
The cash split is easier to read. Of 50 million shares, 36.5 million come from existing holders including Forerunner Ventures and Lifeline Ventures, so 73 percent of the offering is secondary [14][3]. At the $44 top of the range those shares are worth $1.606 billion [4]. The 30-day option on up to 7.5 million more shares is granted by the selling stockholders, another $330 million at $44, and Oura does not receive proceeds from shares sold by existing holders [27][5][26]. Oura's own 13.5 million shares net about $532.6 million at the $42 midpoint [22].
At $44 on more than 320.9 million shares the market capitalisation is about $14.12 billion [23]. Nine-month revenue of $1.21 billion, up 74 percent, annualises to roughly $1.61 billion [25][6], which puts the price at about 8.8 times annualised revenue and 11.7 times the nine months as reported [7][8]. Against the roughly $11 billion Oura carried in 2025 after an $875 million Series E, the step-up is 28 percent [16][9].
Hardware is about 80 percent of revenue, according to Fortune [4]. The remaining fifth annualises to about $323 million, and against more than five million paid members at June 30 that is roughly $65 per member per year, where the US list price is $69.99 annually or $5.99 a month [11][19]. None of the published accounts break out membership revenue. Monday's amended filing raised the count to 5.7 million paid members at the end of fiscal 2026, 96 percent growth, from 5 million in the original [5].
Chief executive Tom Hale has made the data the argument. "AI and our particular take on it is going to be a pretty big moat," he said [9]. "The data is actually the scarce resource here," he said of a dataset he put at 42 billion hours [10].
Fortune's Allie Garfinkle called Oura the most consequential imminent IPO on a calendar basis: Anthropic is reportedly moving to November and OpenAI has punted to 2027 [7][8]. On size it is not close, since SpaceX's $86.2 billion offering and SK Hynix's $26.5 billion Nasdaq debut both landed this year [21]. Oura is expected to price on September 29 [17].
I read this as a liquidity event for the 2025 vintage, with the company keeping about a quarter of the money. The counter is straightforward: at 8.8 times annualised revenue, 74 percent growth makes the price undemanding, and indications of up to $100 million from Eli Lilly and up to $300 million from Dragoneer cover 18 percent of the top-end raise [24][10]. Dragoneer is also among the backers Fortune names as seeking a return [6]. What would decide it is units. Oura sold about 3.6 million rings in the past year [28], which implies roughly $358 of revenue per ring against a $399 list price for the Ring 5 [18][12].
What to watch
- Where the deal prices on September 29 within or above the $40 to $44 range, and whether the 7.5 million share option is exercised.
- The income statement lines in the final prospectus that reconcile $60.8 million of net income with a $924.3 million loss attributable to common holders.
- Ring units in the first quarter Oura reports as a public company, measured against the 3.6 million sold in the past year.