SkyAI sells half its Solana treasury to fund a premium buyback of its own stock

The premium is easier to judge in dollars than in percent. SkyAI says $3 is a 65% premium to its October 9 close ^[4]. That implies a close near $1.82 ^[15]. It also says $3 is more than double the 60-day volume-weighted average price ^[4], so that average was under $1.50 ^[16]. Across the 67.09 million securities in the offer ^[17], $3 is about $79 million above where the market valued them before the announcement ^[18]. The board is paying that to back its view that Forward Industries' proposal undervalued the company ^[5].

The coins paying for it went out lower. Ember's estimate of $138 million for about 1.25 million SOL sold or moved toward trading venues ^[28] implies roughly $110 a coin ^[30], and the latest transfer to Coinbase Prime does not by itself show a sale ^[29]. Lookonchain estimated SkyAI's average purchase price at around $194 ^[19], so $110 is about 43% lower ^[25]. Lookonchain's own figure was a loss of about $46 million on 568,000 SOL, conditional on the tokens being sold and not a company-confirmed loss ^[19][20]. Apply the same cost and a $110 sale price to the roughly 1 million SOL SkyAI confirmed selling ^[1] and the gap is near $84 million ^[26]. That is our calculation, not a reported loss. The report does not include SkyAI's sale prices, its cash balance or the price Forward Industries proposed.

Funding is the next check. At $110 a coin, $201 million is about 1.82 million SOL ^[21]. SkyAI said it still held about 1 million tokens when it announced the tender ^[13], worth roughly $110 million at that price ^[24], so about $91 million has to come from existing cash and proceeds of Solana sales ^[23][3]. The board said its cash and digital assets exceed the maximum and that no additional borrowing is planned ^[9].

The clean outcome is that holders tender, Solana stays above $100 and SkyAI pays out about $201 million with no new debt. It can fail in two places. A class could tender under the 50% minimum ^[10], or Solana could close below $100, only about 9% under the $110 the sales imply ^[22]. SkyAI would then have to end the offer or use its stated right to waive certain conditions ^[12]. Its own selling adds to the pressure on that price, and it said it could sell more depending on market conditions ^[13].

We think "stress" fits the prices and not yet the balance sheet. A stock that closed near $1.82, a coin about 43% under its estimated cost and a reserve cut from more than 2 million SOL in September ^[14] to about half that ^[1] are what a treasury company looks like when the market values it below its own bid. But the board reports no new borrowing and assets above the offer's maximum ^[9], and it is paying holders a premium, so the better description is a deliberate unwind, or rather a deliberate shrinking, with none of the $201 million going into more SOL. We would change that view if a class tenders under 50%, if the $100 floor is waived, or if the cash balance, added to the remaining coins, falls short of $201 million.