Seoul's dual-priced jeonse market opens a gap worth 84 per cent of the average officetel deposit

Two hundred million won of spread between a new contract and a renewal ^[4] sits against an average Seoul officetel jeonse deposit of 237.37 million won ^[1]. That is 84 per cent of the average ^[1]. Measured against the 472.36 million won average for mid-sized units of 60 to 85 square metres ^[2], the same gap is 42 per cent ^[2].

The substitution story has a supply problem. Apartment jeonse listings at 20,483 are down 21 per cent from last November ^[5], which implies about 25,900 a year ago and roughly 5,400 listings gone ^[3]. New officetel supply this year is 1,700 units, down 58.76 per cent from 4,122 ^[7], so the apartment listings that vanished outnumber a full year of new officetel supply by more than three to one ^[4]. The pipeline thins from there: 1,224 units in 2027 and 372 in 2028 ^[8], the last of those 9 per cent of last year's figure ^[7].

In the three southern districts the weekly index and the recorded transactions disagree about size. Gangnam-gu fell 0.35 per cent and Seocho-gu 0.30 per cent in the week to the 7th, a fifth straight decline, while Songpa-gu turned down 0.02 per cent ^[10]; Seoul as a whole rose 0.20 per cent ^[9]. A 161 square metre unit at Hanyang 3rd in Apgujeong-dong went for 6.85 billion won in August against 7.5 billion in July ^[11], a cut of 8.7 per cent in a month ^[5]. An 84 square metre unit at Acro River Park in Banpo-dong fell 3.75 per cent over three months to 5.39 billion won ^[12][6]. Listings across the three districts are up 22.1, 21.3 and 23.1 per cent since Aug. 3 ^[13].

Sellers aged 60 and over in those districts numbered 1,511 in August, up 13.9 per cent from 1,327 ^[15], and Seoul Economic Daily's briefing reads the move as owners getting ahead of the cap on the long-term holding special deduction ^[18]. One in two Gangnam-area sellers was over 60 ^[19], and homes held more than ten years were 49.1 per cent of sales ^[16]. The counts do not fully reconcile: 1,511 against 1,327 is an increase of 184, while 83.7 per cent of a stated increase of 375 sellers is about 314 ^[8]. Outside the Gangnam area, sellers over 60 fell 4.8 per cent ^[17].

On the evidence here the officetel deposit record is mostly a supply number, not a spillover from the tax reform, because the pipeline collapse is measured and the substitution is attributed to analysts in the briefing ^[6]. The counter-thesis is straightforward rent substitution, which unwinds when apartment jeonse listings return toward 25,900 ^[3] and officetel deposits stop setting records. Demand meanwhile went north: the 14 districts above the Han rose 0.33 per cent, four times the 0.08 per cent gain in the 11 southern districts ^[14].