White House counts $54 billion of Korea's energy package toward an Alaska LNG project Seoul has not decided on

The items Zacharia listed, $120 billion for nuclear, $54 billion for Alaska and $22.3 billion for Texas, sum to $196.3 billion ^[8]. That leaves $3.7 billion of the $200 billion ceiling unallocated ^[9], so every line has to land for the total to land. Only Texas has cleared on the Seoul Economic Daily's account ^[5], and the confirmed share is therefore $22.3 billion of $196.3 billion, or 11.4% ^[10]. The other $174 billion ^[11] is 88.6% of the itemized total ^[12], and Alaska alone is 27.5% ^[13]. The ceilings also stack: the nuclear piece was given as "as much as $120 billion" ^[3], inside a package she described as worth "up to" $200 billion ^[1].

The wording is looser than the number built on it. Zacharia said "there is $54 billion tied to the Alaska LNG pipeline and terminal to service the Pacific Rim and sell fuel to our allies" ^[2]. The Seoul Economic Daily reported that as South Korea putting $54 billion into building the pipeline and terminal ^[15]. The remarks as reported do not say whether the money is equity, a loan or purchase commitments.

We'd carry the $54 billion as an intention, or rather as Washington's forecast of Seoul's decision, until Seoul's trade ministry makes that decision. The ministry's stated sequence is a review of commercial viability and other factors first, an investment decision second ^[4]. The counter-case is that a viability review can end in a yes, and the Seoul Economic Daily says this one has only just begun ^[6]. It could as easily end in a smaller number or a deferral, with Texas proceeding alone.

We would be wrong if Seoul announces an investment decision at or near $54 billion. Until then Seoul is committing review time to Alaska and capital to Texas alone ^[5].