September retail sales growth drops from 0.8% to 0.2% without gas stations
U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in September to $745.0 billion, but only 0.2% when gasoline is excluded, AP and Bloomberg reported. The series is not adjusted for prices, so the 0.6-point gap is the part of the gain most exposed to fuel inflation.
The Investor · Invest desk
Ranking of September sales gains: department stores 1.6%, furniture and home stores 1.3%, restaurants 1.1%, online retailers 0.3%.
Sales change in September, per Commerce Department report In % rise
| Rank | Item | Value | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Department stores | 1.6% rise | 14 |
| 2 | Furniture and home stores | 1.3% rise | 14 |
| 3 | Restaurants (services) | 1.1% rise | 14 |
| 4 | Online retailers | 0.3% rise | 14 |
What happened
- Economists had expected a 0.3% increase for September, according to FactSet figures cited by AP.
- The Census Bureau revised August's gain up to 1.3% from 1.1%.
- Sales were up 6.3% from September 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 0.5%.
- The University of Michigan's sentiment index fell to 51.0 in August from 55.2 as households worried about inflation tied to the Middle East conflict.
Why it matters
- constraint The series is in current dollars, so higher pump prices and more gallons look identical in it, and the 0.2% core cannot be read as real growth.
- precedent August beat forecasts on a gasoline price jump and September beat them with gasoline leading again, so the next upside surprise needs a non-fuel explanation before it counts as demand.
- decision Forecasters extrapolating the 1.3% August and 0.8% September prints into October have to choose; the 0.2% ex-gas figure is the only datum in these reports that bears on non-fuel demand.
The gap between the two figures is 0.6 percentage points [15], or 75% of the headline pace [16]. (Growth rates on different bases do not subtract cleanly, so treat the share as an order of magnitude.) The Census Bureau puts the margin of error on the monthly change at plus or minus 0.4% [10], so the headline sits between 0.4% and 1.2% [18]. Even the low end clears the 0.3% that economists expected, according to FactSet [6].
The two sources do not strip the same categories. Bloomberg, as relayed by qz.com, excludes motor vehicles and gasoline and gets 0.2% [4]. AP excludes gas stations alone and also gets 0.2% [5]. Within rounding, autos moved at about the pace of everything else, and the gap between headline and core sits at gas stations [17].
If higher pump prices were squeezing other budgets, department stores are where it would show. They rose 1.6%, furniture and home stores rose 1.3% and restaurants rose 1.1% [14]. Yet sales excluding gas stations rose only 0.2% [5], and with several categories above that rate, the rest of the basket must have averaged below it [20].
We think the energy-price reading is right in direction and unmeasured in size. AP notes that the figures are not adjusted for inflation, and that inflation accelerated in September as gasoline and many other goods and services became more expensive [9]. The reports do not include September gas-station sales, so fuel price cannot be separated from fuel volume.
There are ways we could be wrong. Drivers may simply have bought more gallons, and that would make the gap volume instead of price. The 0.2% core is also in current dollars [2], so with goods prices rising it could be flat or negative in real terms. And the estimate is not final: August was revised from 1.1% to 1.3% [7], so September can move too.
August is the closest comparison. Gasoline prices jumped and service-station sales rose 3.1% [8]. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.3% [13], and the University of Michigan's sentiment index fell 4.2 points [19], to 51.0 from 55.2 [12]. Spending rose as sentiment fell.
The view fails if the Census category tables show September gas-station sales up only modestly, or if the ex-gas figure is revised up toward the 0.8% headline.
What to watch
- The October retail sales report: whether September's 0.8% is revised, as August's 1.1% became 1.3%, and in which direction the ex-gas 0.2% moves.
- Census category tables for September gas-station sales, which would show whether the gain was price or volume.
- The next University of Michigan sentiment reading against 51.0, and year-ahead inflation expectations against 4.3%.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence72
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
The Census Bureau reported on Thursday that U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.8% in September from August to $745.0 billion.
- [2]
The estimate is adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
- [3]
According to Bloomberg, the stronger-than-expected September result was driven largely by receipts at gasoline stations.
- [4]
According to Bloomberg, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, the September gain narrows to 0.2%.
- [5]
Excluding business at gas stations, retail sales rose 0.2% in September.
- [6]
Economists were anticipating a 0.3% increase in September retail sales, according to FactSet.
- [7]
The bureau revised the July-to-August change to a gain of 1.3%, up from the 1.1% estimate issued earlier.
- [8]
In August, gasoline prices jumped and service-station sales rose 3.1%; August's retail figures had beaten forecasts.
- [9]
The government figures are not adjusted for inflation, which accelerated in September as gasoline and many other goods and services became more expensive.
- [10]
The Census Bureau put the margin of error on the monthly change at plus or minus 0.4%.
- [11]
September sales were up 6.3% from September 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 0.5%.
- [12]
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 51.0 in August from 55.2 in July as households worried about inflation tied to the Middle East conflict.
- [13]
Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.3% in August.
- [14]
In September, furniture and home stores rose 1.3%, department stores 1.6%, online retailers 0.3%, and restaurants, the lone services category, 1.1%.
- [15]
The gap between the 0.8% headline and the 0.2% excluding-gasoline figure is 0.6 percentage points.
- [16]
The 0.6-point gap is 75% of the 0.8% headline pace (approximate, since growth rates on different bases do not subtract exactly).
- [17]
Because excluding gas stations alone and excluding autos plus gas both give 0.2%, autos grew at about the same pace as the rest of the basket within rounding, so the headline-to-core gap sits at gas stations.
- [18]
With a margin of error of plus or minus 0.4%, the headline monthly change sits between 0.4% and 1.2%.
- [19]
The Michigan sentiment index fell 4.2 points in August.
- [20]
Because department stores, furniture and home stores and restaurants all rose faster than 0.2% while sales excluding gas stations rose 0.2%, the remaining categories must have averaged below 0.2%.
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Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- finance.yahoo.comRetail sales up a better-than-expected 0.8% in September from August, underscoring shoppers' resilience
1 article · October 15, 2026
- qz.comU.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in September, boosted by gasoline station spending
1 article · October 15, 2026
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