Musk says competition will lower Ambani's profits days before Jio's $106 billion IPO

Musk's pledge is conditional. "Obviously, if Starlink is too expensive in India, no one will buy it, so SpaceX will need to make pricing affordable," he posted on X on Saturday ^[2]. He did not specify prices ^[4]. The yardstick for any price he names is mobile data at about 8 cents per gigabyte, among the cheapest rates anywhere ^[6].

Musk added a line that goes to the valuation: "Ambani's profits will be lower, but he is not going out of business" ^[3]. On his own telling, the cost to Jio is lower profit. That profit sits on a large base: if 910 million subscribers is just over 80% of the market, the whole market is at most 1,137.5 million, and every other provider combined serves at most about 227.5 million ^[13][14].

We think the pledge changes how the listing is discussed well before it changes what Jio charges. Pricing power is tested by a rival with subscribers. Starlink is not yet selling service in India. The counter-thesis is that entry is a question of timing, and a buyer who values Jio on a share above 80% has to put some value on a future rival now, before any clearance arrives. A third outcome is that Reliance sells satellite service before Starlink does, since Jio's own venture is waiting on the same final security clearance ^[9]. Starlink would then be entering against a Jio that already sells from satellites.

We would be wrong if Starlink publishes an India price that Jio has to answer, or if Starlink is cleared ahead of Jio's venture.

Reliance did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment ^[16]. Speaking at an industry conference in New Delhi last week, SpaceX Vice President Lauren Dreyer said the company had been working through India's regulatory process for five years ^[12]. Five years into that process, the Saturday post is the only pricing commitment in either report.