InvestNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher2 min readPublished
MNX puts end-2027 expiry dates on futures for OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek and Moonshot
MNX, built by Manifold Markets, launched futures on OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek and Moonshot that expire at end-2027 and allow 3x leverage. Settlement may differ from what private shares fetch, so a holder is betting on the exit rule as well as the company.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- MNX runs on the MegaETH blockchain and raised $6.4 million in June from investors led by Village Global.
- OKX and Bitget already list contracts on private AI companies; Bitget's perpetuals never expire, and OKX's have no expiry but use a different funding mechanism.
- If a company is still private at expiry, MNX settles on funding-round, fund or secondary-market valuations, and as a last resort sets the price itself under a published review process.
- MNX does not currently serve US customers, and co-founder Stephen Grugett said it plans to obtain the necessary licenses.
- MNX also plans markets on company revenue, employment, housing, the AI supply chain and computing capacity.
Why it matters
- decision A trader choosing between MNX and a Bitget perpetual is choosing which cost to carry: a funding rate that moves, or a fixed end-2027 expiry with no recurring fee.
- constraint Until licences arrive, order flow comes only from non-US traders, and MNX's own trading sets the price until expiry, so the depth of that book is the first thing a buyer should check.
- exposure At 3x, a 33% move against a position erases the stake before margin rules come into play, and the settlement rule is one more way for the price to move against a holder.
- precedent Each planned market will need its own settlement source, so the question of who sets the final price will recur with every new listing.
Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett told CoinDesk the problem with existing contracts is the input. "OpenAI, Anthropic secondaries are illiquid and hard to price," he said [11]. He said of perpetuals on such prices: "A perp based on an illiquid, stale price is worse than meaningless." His reasons: "it doesn't behave the way investors expect; it's easy to manipulate; and it may have a very high and unpredictable funding rate." [12]
We think the same objection reaches MNX's own exit. The fallback in its settlement rules leans on funding rounds, investment funds and secondary markets [8]. Those are the sources Grugett calls illiquid. The stale-price problem moves to one date, the end of 2027, and stops recurring in every funding period of an open-ended contract. The exposure is narrower, and we think it is better than an unpredictable funding rate.
Village Global, the lead investor, describes the money as a bet that financial markets have yet to catch up with the cash flowing into AI [14]. Max Killberg of Village Global said: "AI is driving one of the largest investment cycles in history, despite the financial infrastructure around it remaining quite underdeveloped." [13] He said the firm wants to build financial markets around AI. It did not want to back just another prediction market, he added [14]. Bitcoin Suisse's Crypto Wealth Management Report 2026 expects the largest US hyperscalers to spend at least $800 billion this year and more than $1 trillion next [15].
An IPO before the end of 2027 would leave the fallback unused; we'd expect a public price to settle the contract, though the report does not spell that out. A settlement close to a priced funding round would show the rule working. One that MNX had to set itself under its published review process would be the strongest case against it [8].
What to watch
- MNX's published review process for last-resort settlement, and whether it names a body outside the exchange.
- Open interest and pricing gaps between MNX contracts and Bitget or OKX contracts on the same company.
- The first non-valuation market MNX lists (revenue, employment or computing capacity) and the data source it names for settlement.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap
- Insufficient
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
MNX, a cryptocurrency exchange developed by Manifold Markets, went live on Tuesday offering futures contracts tied to OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek and Moonshot.
- [2]
MNX's contracts expire at the end of 2027 and incur no recurring funding fees.
- [3]
Traders on MNX can use up to three times their available funds, increasing both potential profits and losses.
- [4]
MNX settlement prices may differ from the prices investors would pay for private shares.
- [5]
MNX is built on the MegaETH blockchain and raised $6.4 million from investors led by Village Global in June.
- [6]
Larger exchanges including OKX and Bitget already offer contracts that let traders bet on the value of private AI companies; Bitget's perpetual futures never expire, and OKX offers contracts with no expiration dates but uses a different funding mechanism.
- [7]
MNX prices are determined by trading activity on MNX rather than an external price feed.
- [8]
If a company remains private when its contract expires, MNX uses publicly available valuations from funding rounds, investment funds or secondary markets; as a last resort MNX can determine the settlement price itself, subject to a published review process.
- [9]
MNX does not currently serve U.S. customers, although Grugett said it plans to obtain the necessary licenses.
ReportedSupportedSource: CoinDesk, citing Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen GrugettView cited source - [10]
MNX aims to offer markets around the wider AI economy, including company revenue, employment, housing, the AI supply chain and computing capacity.
- [11]
"OpenAI, Anthropic secondaries are illiquid and hard to price," he said.
- [12]
"A perp based on an illiquid, stale price is worse than meaningless: it doesn't behave the way investors expect; it's easy to manipulate; and it may have a very high and unpredictable funding rate."
- [13]
"AI is driving one of the largest investment cycles in history, despite the financial infrastructure around it remaining quite underdeveloped," said Max Killberg of Village Global.
- [14]
According to Village Global, the investment is a bet that financial markets have yet to catch up with the enormous amounts of money flowing into AI; Killberg said the firm sees an opportunity to develop financial markets around AI rather than simply back another prediction market.
- [15]
The largest U.S. hyperscalers are expected to spend at least $800 billion this year and more than $1 trillion the next.
ReportedSupportedSource: Bitcoin Suisse's Crypto Wealth Management Report 2026, cited by CoinDeskView cited source - [16]
At 3x leverage, an adverse move of one-third (about 33%) in the contract price erases the posted stake, before any maintenance-margin rules, which the source does not describe.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- coindesk.comCrypto exchange MNX takes on OKX, BitGet offering pre-IPO futures for AI giants
1 article · October 13, 2026
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