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Convenience Store Stocks Are Being Priced As An AI Hedge. They Are A Fuel-Margin Bet
Casey's, Couche-Tard and Murphy USA are all up at least 24% this year on a defensive label. The earnings driver is a closed Strait of Hormuz, which is the opposite of defensive.
The Investor · Invest desk
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What happened
- Shares of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., Casey's General Stores Inc. and Murphy USA Inc. have surged to near record levels and are all up at least 24% this year.
- Casey's General Stores is up more than 54% this year and on track for its best annual performance in 35 years; it was added to the S&P 500 Index four months ago.
- Convenience store stocks are riding investor demand for defensive plays as angst over the sustainability of the AI boom and the ongoing conflict in Iran drive market turbulence.
- Energy markets have been roiled since the US attacked Iran in late February and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The energy market disruption has run roughly six months, from late February 2026 to the article's publication on 14 August 2026.
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Why it matters
Shares of Alimentation Couche-Tard, Casey's General Stores and Murphy USA have all climbed at least 24% this year and sit near record levels, with Casey's up more than 54% and on track for its best annual performance in 35 years [1][2]. Fortune reports the cohort is being bought as a defensive hedge against doubts over the AI boom and the conflict in Iran [3], which is a strange thing to call a group whose margins now depend on a war.
The mechanism is not consumer staples stability. Energy markets have been disrupted since the US attacked Iran in late February and the Strait of Hormuz subsequently closed [4], meaning roughly six months of price dislocation feeding into pump economics [5]. William Blair analyst Phillip Blee put the trade plainly: volatile gas prices help, because the store keeps retail prices fairly elevated while buying opportunistically [6]. Couche-Tard reported large fuel margin gains after the war began [7]. That is a spread business benefiting from disorder, not a bond substitute.
The dispersion tells you what is actually being paid for. Couche-Tard is up 22% in Toronto [8]; Casey's is up more than 54% [2], a gap of about 32 points [9]. Casey's operates in towns of 20,000 people or fewer across 19 states, and has announced a three-year plan to expand its chicken wing business and add at least 400 stores in Texas and elsewhere in the South [10][11]. Roundhill's HALO ETF, built around high-asset, low-obsolescence names as a diversifier from AI, bought Casey's as its only convenience store position [12]. Roundhill CEO Dave Mazza frames the appeal as cash flows from essential daily demand for fuel, food and staples [13].
Private capital is reading the same bid. April's Yesway IPO, backed by Brookwood Financial Partners, was 10 times oversubscribed and the shares are up 22% since debut [14]. TDR Capital-backed Cumberland Farms filed for a US IPO last month, and Bloomberg News reported in June it was considering a valuation of about $9 billion [15]. Melius Research analyst Jacob Aiken-Phillips reads the Yesway result as evidence of public-market demand for convenience store exposure beyond the established names [16].
The non-fuel story is real but small-ticket. JPMorgan analyst Thomas Palmer notes nicotine pouches, beverages and foodservice as common growth callouts [17], and Murphy told investors it expects pouches plus a resurgence in cigarettes to drive second-half growth [18]. Murphy is up nearly 40% this year [19].
The operators themselves are less enthusiastic than the multiple implies. Murphy issued deliberately conservative 2026 guidance [20], with CEO Mindy West saying retail margins are very difficult to predict amid a crisis that continues to ebb and flow [21]. Seven & i has delayed the planned listing of its US operation to the fiscal year ending February 2027 [22]. Aiken-Phillips says the industry's central debate is whether 2027 is a down year across the board [23].
Watch Couche-Tard and Casey's, both due to report next month [24]. RBC analyst Irene Nattel expects attention to shift to same-store sales and gas-margin sustainability as geopolitical volatility subsides [25]. If Hormuz reopens, the defensive thesis has to be carried entirely by pizza, wings and pouches.