Gwangmyeong apartment prices outrun chip-money Yeongtong as last year's move-in glut clears

Over two years, the Gwangmyeong run is steadier than the single-year figure suggests. Zigbang's resale data had the city up 3.8% in the 12 months before its latest window ^[8]. Compounded with the latest year's gain, the two-year rise is about 33.3% ^[1]. Spread evenly, that comes to roughly 15.4% a year ^[2].

The comparison with Yeongtong is a weaker test of the supply story. Gwangmyeong leads by 0.85 points ^[2], and two districts sit in between: Yongin's Suji at 14.96% and Anyang's Dongan at 14.72% ^[13]. The eleven Gyeonggi areas with double-digit gains span only 6.83 points from top to bottom ^[3]. The reported survey figures do not include Yeongtong's gain over the same months last year. Chaining Gwangmyeong's two year-to-September stretches gives about 15.9% ^[7]. Any gain in Yeongtong above about 1.1% last year would put it ahead across both years ^[6].

That leaves two readings. If Yeongtong rose more than that last year, the money around Samsung Electronics' plants ^[2] compounded on a firm base while Gwangmyeong caught up. If Yeongtong was flat too, both cities are riding the same Gyeonggi-wide demand, and supply timing explains why Gwangmyeong edged ahead. In my view the supply story explains Gwangmyeong's own 15.17-point swing ^[3] and does not yet rank the city against chip money. The counter-case is that a swing that size in one city is what clearing a glut looks like, whatever Yeongtong did.

Volume rose with price. Recorded transactions in Gwangmyeong rose 24.4% over Zigbang's latest 12 months ^[9], so the higher prices cleared on more deals. An official at the Korea Housing Industry Research Institute said fewer new units around Seoul and rising Seoul home prices could push commuter-belt markets, Gwangmyeong included, higher still ^[6].

A rebound driven by a glut should fade once last year's units are absorbed. At that point Gwangmyeong's weekly gains should converge on the province's. In late September they moved apart. Gwangmyeong's weekly rise went from about 1.7 times the Gyeonggi rate to about 2.3 times as the province slowed ^[12][4]. Held for a year, the latest week's 0.34% would compound to about 19.3% ^[5]. Several weeks of Gwangmyeong at or below the Gyeonggi average would show the supply rebound is spent.