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Galaxy Digital's estimate for the US market-structure bill has fallen from 75% in May to 10%. Firms budgeting for a statute should budget for SEC and CFTC rulemaking instead.
The Investor · Invest desk
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Galaxy Digital has cut its estimate of the CLARITY Act's chance of passing in 2026 to 10%, down from the 75% it set on May 22 [1][2]. For anyone whose compliance plan assumed a federal market-structure statute for digital assets [20], that is a signal to rebuild the plan around agency rulemaking.
The path of the revisions is more informative than the endpoint. Galaxy went from 75% to 60% on June 6, then from 60% to 50% on June 26 [3]. The latest move, 40 percentage points, is larger than those first two cuts combined [1]. The early cuts read as slipping confidence in the politics. This one is arithmetic about the calendar: the Senate reconvenes on Sept. 14 with 14 days in session [4], which Galaxy characterises as roughly two to three weeks [5]. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, wrote in a Friday X post that unless a motion to proceed comes immediately on lawmakers' return, there is only enough time if the bill "dominates basically the entire working session" [6].
The unresolved items are not drafting details. Thorn cited ethics rules covering government officials' involvement in crypto and pressure from banks over stablecoin yield provisions [7]. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, but most Democrats and the banking industry objected that it would let crypto firms pay yield on stablecoins without the requirements banks face [8]. Lobbying volume has not moved that: more than 200 crypto companies and organisations signed a letter urging passage at the beginning of June, shared by Stand With Crypto [9].
If the bill fails, the SEC and CFTC plan to write their own crypto market rules [10]. The mechanics of that fallback are already visible, and they are messy. The SEC scheduled an open meeting on Friday to unveil its "clear rules of the road," then cancelled it citing "an unforeseen scheduling issue" [11]. According to Cointelegraph's account, the White House was unhappy that the SEC moving alone could anger Democrats and damage the CLARITY negotiations [12]. The agencies' plan B is therefore hostage to the same politics that stalled plan A.
The deeper problem with agency rules is that they do not settle who is in charge. The CFTC ordered prediction market Kalshi to ignore a New York restraining order and keep operating, treating the state action as a market emergency [13], with Chair Michael Selig saying Congress did not intend derivatives exchanges to face a "patchwork of state gaming laws" [14]. Days later a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to stop operating in the state, rejected the federal preemption argument, and required geofencing by Aug. 19 [15]. A federal directive lost to a state court inside a week. That is what fragmented rulemaking buys: guidance you can build to, and no assurance it holds.
Three things to watch. Whether a motion to proceed is filed in the Senate's first days back, which is Thorn's stated condition for the timeline working at all [6]. Wednesday's White House meeting, where SEC chair Paul Atkins, President Donald Trump and executives from Coinbase, a16z, Ripple, Chainlink, NYSE and Nasdaq are due to discuss getting the bill over the line [16], followed the next day by the CFTC's new Innovation Advisory Committee taking up crypto, AI and prediction markets [17]. And whether the SEC reschedules the cancelled meeting [11], which would indicate the agencies have stopped waiting.
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
Galaxy Digital lowered its estimate of the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act's chances of passing in 2026 to 10%.
The Senate has only 14 days in session to pass the bill after it reconvenes on Sept. 14.
Galaxy warned the Senate will have only about two to three weeks to pass the CLARITY Act when it reconvenes on Sept. 14.
Thorn said lawmakers would still have to work through multiple issues, including ethics rules for government officials' involvement in crypto and pressure from banks over stablecoin yield provisions.
Galaxy's 75% estimate for CLARITY Act passage was set on May 22.
Galaxy cut its CLARITY passage estimate from 75% to 60% on June 6, and from 60% to 50% on June 26.
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Evidence-backed comparisons of source perspectives and observed adoption signals. Read the methodology
Which Builder, Operator, and Investor concerns the observed source mix emphasized—not a truth score.
Evidence, demonstrated adoption, hype gap, incentives, and confidence are assessed independently, each on its own current evidence. How these are measured.
Odds move well documented, fallback thinly sourced
The central facts — the 10% estimate, the dated downgrade path, the Sept. 14 return with roughly two to three weeks of floor time, and the ethics/stablecoin-yield blockers — appear in two independent publishers with attribution to a named researcher. Evidence weakens sharply on the story's second half: the assertion that the SEC and CFTC will issue their own rules, and the reported White House displeasure, rest on one unattributed digest passage, and the two publishers disagree on whether the final cut was 40 points or 20.
Agencies acting, no statute and no rulebook yet
Observable action is real but early and contested: the SEC scheduled then cancelled the meeting that would have unveiled its rules, the CFTC asserted exclusive jurisdiction over Kalshi and was immediately overruled in Washington state court, and the substantive convenings (White House meeting, CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee) were still forward-looking at publication. Industry uptake is limited to a 200-plus-company advocacy letter. Nothing in the supplied sources shows a published agency rule that firms can build compliance against.
Slightly overstated relative to sourcing
The odds number itself is reported accurately and conservatively. Overstatement sits in the surrounding framing: presenting the drop as a single 50%-to-10% collapse omits a documented 30% way-station, and treating SEC/CFTC rulemaking as the operative plan rests on one unattributed sentence whose only concrete corroboration — the SEC's 'clear rules of the road' meeting — was cancelled amid reported White House objection. The underlying legislative arithmetic is not exaggerated, so the gap is modest rather than large.
Interested forecaster, aligned trade press
The probability estimate originates with Galaxy Digital, a crypto financial services firm with direct exposure to US market-structure outcomes, and is distributed by two crypto trade publications; neither discloses or examines that interest. The bill's supporters visible in the sources are an organized lobby coalition of 200-plus firms and named industry executives meeting the President, while opposing interests — banks resisting stablecoin yield — are characterised only through the forecaster's framing. Incentives are legible from the supplied material without inference, but no supplied source documents payment, sponsorship or position-taking.
Solid on the number, weak on the sequel
Two independent publishers dated within 24 hours agree on the headline estimate, the calendar and the blockers, and the key quotation is attributed to a named researcher — enough for firm confidence on the legislative outlook. Confidence falls on the agency-fallback and White House-reaction material, which comes from a single weekly digest with hedged language, and on the exact downgrade sequence, where the two publishers conflict.
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