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ChatGPT named a vendor in 28.6% of its opening search sub-queries across 3,842 runs
Radyant's open dataset of 3,842 ChatGPT search runs found 28.6% of opening sub-queries named a vendor before any page was retrieved. Some AI search visibility is shaped by the model's category associations, ahead of any page it fetches.
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What happened
- The runs covered 615 buying questions and were collected between August 11 and 17, 2026.
- When a brand showed up in an opening query, several brands often showed up in the same run.
- Brands also reached final answers without appearing in any sub-query of that run, at rates Radyant put between 9% and 29%.
- Separate B2B SaaS analyses repeatedly saw Braze, MoEngage, Iterable and Insider selected in fan-out queries for their categories.
- A separate arXiv study found ChatGPT's top commercial recommendations unstable even across identical runs.
Compiled by The EngineerSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- constraint Page optimization acts at retrieval, so it cannot shape a sub-query the model writes from its own category associations before fetching anything.
- decision Tracking fan-out queries alone will miss brands that enter answers through no sub-query, so a visibility monitor has to log final answers too.
- exposure A global brand selling into non-English markets can lose recommendations to domestic names when buyers query in their own language or connect locally.
ChatGPT handles a search prompt by writing sub-queries, called fan-out queries, and retrieving web pages for them [1]. The opening sub-query is written before any result has come back [1]. A vendor name in that query did not come from retrieval. The dev.to write-up's interpretation is that ChatGPT draws on brand-category associations it already holds while it forms its search plan [10]. Independent B2B SaaS analyses describe what those plans tend to contain: searches for an official brand page, for documentation, for pages restricted to one domain, and comparisons across several brands [8].
Radyant published the dataset openly and put an interval on its headline number, so the figure can be checked [2][4]. The 28.6% sits in a reported band of 25.6% to 31.6%, or plus or minus 3.0 points [3][1]. If all 3,842 runs were independent draws, a standard 95% binomial interval would be about plus or minus 1.4 points [2]. Treat the 615 questions as the sample and it widens to about plus or minus 3.6 [5]. If the reported band is also a 95% interval, it is much closer to the question-level figure [6]. With about 6.2 runs per question [3], I'd expect repeated runs of one question to open in similar ways. The band's width fits that, and it puts the effective sample nearer 615 questions than 3,842 runs [6].
For the figure to describe another category, that category's buying questions would need to resemble Radyant's 615. They would also need to reach the model as it behaved during the August 11 to 17 collection [2], in the same language and from the same exit location. The language and location conditions come from the arXiv study, which tested 234 logged-out ChatGPT and API runs across languages and countries [11]. The dev.to summary does not say which languages or exit locations Radyant's runs used.
Radyant's own numbers limit how far the opening-query finding reaches. In the other roughly 71.4% of runs, the opening query named no vendor [5]. Brands also reached answers that no sub-query had named [7]. The write-up says a company missing from the initial framing can still be found through retrieval or named in the answer, though it may have fewer routes in [13]. Retrieved pages still count; they work alongside the model's choice of what to look for [14]. In about 1,099 of the 3,842 runs, that choice included a vendor before retrieval began [4].
Given the instability the arXiv team measured across identical runs [17], a screenshot of one favorable chat proves only that one chat happened. The write-up suggests testing realistic buying, comparison and alternative-to prompts, repeating them across runs while recording answers and any visible fan-out queries, and running them in the languages and locations where the business sells [15]. It also suggests checking that the company's site and public materials tie the brand to the category, use cases and terms its customers use [16].
What to watch
- Radyant publishing the language and exit-location settings behind its runs, so the 28.6% can be compared across markets.
- A repeat collection after a ChatGPT model update, to see whether the opening-query vendor rate moves outside the 25.6% to 31.6% band.
- Any analysis linking opening-query mentions to final-answer mentions, measuring whether being named early raises a brand's odds of being recommended.