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Invest2 publishers2 min readPublished

Cboe's perpetual VIX idea trades the cost of rolling for the cost of funding

Cboe is exploring a never-expiring VIX future, a design Robert Shiller proposed in 1993, though it has no contract specs or filing yet, Bloomberg reported. Holders would swap roll losses for funding payments, priced against an index that market makers cannot buy to hedge.

The Investor · Invest desk

Illustration accompanying Cboe's perpetual VIX idea trades the cost of rolling for the cost of funding
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What happened

  • The VIX already has a market of futures, options and exchange-traded products that track the index.
  • Holders of dated VIX futures must roll into the next contract at expiry, the same drag on returns that bitcoin futures ETFs were criticized for after their late-2021 debut.
  • Perpetual swaps never expire and use a funding rate to hold the contract price close to the spot index.
  • Hyperliquid recently listed futures tied to Volmex's bitcoin implied volatility index, a crypto venue's version of a perpetual on a volatility gauge.

Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made

Why it matters

  • cost Long-volatility holders keep paying to carry the position, now through funding, so the product saves them money only if funding comes in below what the roll costs today.
  • constraint A dealer short a VIX perpetual would hedge in dated futures and options, so the roll and basis costs the customer escapes stay on the dealer's book and come back through funding.
  • precedent A Cboe listing would give other exchanges a template for perpetuals on indexes that cannot be bought, the spread DWF Labs' Martin Lee expects across "many more indexes, assets and metrics."

People hold long VIX positions as protection, because the index jumps when investors rush to buy options against a rapid market drop [17]. The protection costs money to carry either way. A dated future charges it at each roll [5]. A perpetual would charge it through funding payments, and CoinDesk notes those are still a cost [12]. The design ends the roll, or rather, it ends the fixed dates on which the roll is paid. Whether it cuts the expense depends on a funding formula Cboe has not written [2].

A dealer short a bitcoin perpetual can hedge by buying bitcoin [13]. Nobody can buy the VIX. It is a calculation over S&P 500 options prices that estimates 30-day volatility [3], so there is no cash asset to hold against the contract [13]. "For us, the interesting question is how funding would anchor an index that cannot be bought as a cash asset," analysts at Marex Solutions said in an email [14]. "Removing expiry does not remove hedge costs or basis risk," they wrote [15].

Martin Lee, market insights lead at DWF Labs, made the trader's case. "Traders don't have to worry about expiries and decay and just focus on the direction of where they think the underlying is heading," he told CoinDesk [7]. The Marex analysts called the idea "a potential new volatility market, not a cheaper substitute for options convexity" until contract terms exist [16].

The work is early enough that Cboe may never file [2]. If it does file, funding might charge about what the roll charges now, and holders would pay the same carry on a different schedule. The third outcome is the one CoinDesk sets out. A launch brings in more traders, and more hedging by market makers across VIX futures and other S&P 500 derivatives pulls the various VIX products into closer agreement [11].

I'd expect volume to decide it. If a perpetual costs about as much to hold as a rolled future, it has to attract trading that the dated contracts do not, and the crypto precedent so far is weak. Gate already lists VIX/USDT perpetuals, and CoinDesk describes that market as highly illiquid with little noticeable volume [9]. The counter-case is that the convenience Lee describes, dropping expiries altogether [7], brings in traders whatever the funding costs. If a Cboe perpetual pulled volume away from dated VIX futures in its first months, that case would be right and the carry comparison would matter less.

What to watch

  • A Cboe filing with contract specs, above all the formula that sets funding against an index no one can own.
  • Trading volume in Hyperliquid's futures on Volmex's bitcoin volatility index, the nearest live test of demand for perpetuals on a calculated index.
  • Whether other exchanges announce perpetuals on indexes in the coming months, the wave DWF Labs' Lee says he expects.
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