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Blockchain.com's $4-6 billion IPO target repeats a markdown its private backers took in 2023
Blockchain.com is seeking about $500 million in a U.S. IPO at a $4 billion to $6 billion valuation, Bloomberg reported, against a $14 billion peak in 2022. Most of that discount was already taken in a private round in 2023.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- People familiar with the talks told Bloomberg that Blockchain.com could cut the size of the offering if doing so helps complete the IPO.
- In November 2023 Blockchain.com raised $110 million in a Series E led by Kingsway Capital at less than half its former $14 billion valuation, Bloomberg reported.
- Lightspeed Venture Partners led the March 2022 Series D that set the $14 billion peak, with Baillie Gifford participating, according to Bloomberg.
- The company filed confidentially with the SEC in May and had not published a public Form S-1 as of Sept. 29.
- Blockchain.com interviewed banks for a listing in April 2022 after the $14 billion round, but that attempt did not proceed during the downturn.
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Why it matters
- cost Investors who bought into the March 2022 round would see the company valued at 29% to 43% of their entry price if the IPO prices inside the reported range.
- decision By offering to shrink the deal to get it done, management is putting a completed listing ahead of the size of the raise, and the IPO book will set the final price.
- constraint Until a public S-1 appears, buyers can anchor the $4 billion to $6 billion range only to old private rounds, because revenue and operating costs are still confidential.
Most of the fall from $14 billion happened in a private round, long before any IPO range was floated. Bloomberg reported that the November 2023 Series E valued the company at less than half its peak [8], so below $7 billion [2]. Of the $8 billion to $10 billion gap between the peak and the reported range, private investors had conceded at least $7 billion before this deal reached anyone's desk [2]. crypto.news places the range inside the band seen after the 2022 decline [9]. No public investor has paid anything yet, and the company has not confirmed the terms [4].
The offering size is the odder term, or rather its size against everything the company has raised before. A $500 million raise is about 93% of the $537 million in equity capital Blockchain.com says it has raised in total [4][11]. One deal would nearly double the cash its shareholders have ever put in. If the range is the post-offering value, $500 million buys roughly 8.3% to 12.5% of the company [3]. The range itself is 7.4 to 11.2 times paid-in equity [5], fifteen years after the company's 2011 founding [7].
From here the deal either prices inside the range at about $500 million, shrinks, as the people in Bloomberg's report allowed, or stalls, as the 2022 attempt did. The third outcome is live in a market where several recent crypto listings trade below their post-IPO highs [14], though Bloomberg's latest report has the company still aiming to list before the end of 2026 [15].
I think the reported range ratifies the 2023 markdown and does not extend it. The company is asking for a number inside the post-2022 band [9]. The counter-case sits at the floor. At $4 billion, Blockchain.com would be valued at 77% of the $5.2 billion set in its Series C, a round priced a year before the peak [6][7]. If the book settles there, or the raise falls well below $500 million, public buyers are discounting boom-era pricing beyond what private investors accepted. That would be real evidence that public markets are marking down crypto brokerages priced in the boom. Bloomberg reported the Series E only as less than half of $14 billion [8], so the cleaner test is against that $5.2 billion Series C.
What the book would buy is a broker claiming more than $1.1 trillion in transactions processed [10], a volume measure, with businesses in retail trading, wallets, custody and over-the-counter desks [17]. It also recently signed an NYSE agreement to explore continuous trading of tokenized U.S. stocks [16].
What to watch
- A public Form S-1 putting revenue and operating costs beside the $4 billion to $6 billion range for the first time.
- Whether marketing pushes the valuation toward the $4 billion floor, below the $5.2 billion Series C price, or cuts the raise well under $500 million.
- Whether the listing closes before the end of 2026 or stalls as the April 2022 attempt did.