A French bakery pays about its March fuel bill for 40% less heating oil

Divide the Luces' March order and heating oil cost them about 1.115 euros a liter ^[1]. If last week's bill matched March's, the 1,200 liters came to about 1.86 euros each, 67% more ^[2]. Kevin Luce, who runs his oven at 270 degrees Celsius for the baguettes ^[3], puts the rise at 50% ^[5]. At that rate the order would have cost about 2,007 euros, roughly 10% under the March bill and still close enough to call almost the same ^[3].

Martial Realland, who sells pancakes and fries from a food truck in l'Oise, reports numbers in the same range ^[13]. A diesel fill has gone from 120 euros before the Iran war, which began on Feb. 28 ^[4], to 200 euros ^[13]. That is 67% more ^[6]. His quote for filling the 1,500-liter tank that heats his rented home is 2,500 euros against 1,600 last year ^[14], or 1.67 euros a liter against 1.07, a 56% rise ^[5].

At March's price the Luces' 1,200 liters would have cost about 1,338 euros. If last week's bill was near 2,230 euros, each delivery now carries about 890 euros of extra fuel ^[4]. Luce said where that money comes from: "It's salary we can't take, it's salary increases we can't give to our employees. It's investments we can't make." ^[6] Realland is cutting work. He said he turns down jobs that need a long drive ^[15], and he may not fill his home tank at all this year ^[14].

France's response is an estimated 450 million euros ^[10]. The reported pieces are subsidies for people who commute at least 15 kilometers ^[11] and payments of 48 to 277 euros to help 5.8 million families with winter energy bills ^[12]. Spread the whole sum over those families and the average cannot exceed about 78 euros, before any money goes to commuters ^[7]. The top payment, if Realland received it, would cover about 31% of his 900-euro rise in heating-oil cost ^[8]. The report describes the package as aimed at people and industries ^[10], but it does not itemize any support for business fuel such as the Luces' oven.

The targeting tracks the politics, in my view. About 21 million French people, a third of the population, live in the countryside and often depend on cars ^[8]. Fuel prices helped set off the yellow vest protests that took root in rural towns during Macron's first term ^[9]. The other measure on the record is the heating-oil tax cut that Christine Loir, a National Rally lawmaker from L'Eure, is lobbying for ^[17]. Heating oil fuels homes and some bakers' ovens alike, so that cut would reach both ^[17].

Where the extra cost ends up is still open. The industry share of the package, not yet itemized, could turn out to cover firms like the Luces'. Bakers could move it into the price of a baguette. Or owners absorb it through pay and investment, as Luce describes ^[6]. I think absorption is the base case for the roughly 8,500 bakers with oil- or gas-fired ovens ^[7][9], because the money the package itemizes goes to households and commuters ^[11][12]. A published business line, sized against a delivery that now costs about 890 euros more, would prove that wrong ^[4].