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AP-NORC puts Trump's cost-of-living approval at 17% weeks before the midterms
AP-NORC finds 17% of US adults approve of Donald Trump's handling of living costs and 65% blame his policies for high prices. The poll lands weeks before midterms that decide control of Congress, and the movement most relevant to that vote is among Republicans.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Approval of Trump's handling of the economy overall has fallen to 26%, a new low.
- About seven in ten Americans say his handling of the cost of living has been worse than expected, roughly half of Republicans among them.
- About half of adults are now extremely or very concerned about affording gas, up from 39% in July, and about half are as worried about food.
- The report reads the blame as growing weariness over his aggressive use of tariffs and continued unhappiness with the war with Iran.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- decision Holding today's tariff and fiscal assumptions fixed past November is now a bet that Republicans keep Congress while two in three adults blame the president's policies for prices.
- exposure Trump's request that voters pretend he is on the ballot ties every Republican candidate to his 17% rating on living costs.
- contradiction Republicans increasingly disapprove of his record on prices yet mostly blame outside forces, so this poll cannot settle whether the anger moves seats or stays a mood.
The 17% will be the headline figure, and it measures sentiment. Control of Congress turns on whether that sentiment changes who votes. In the AP-NORC poll, the part that speaks to that question is the movement inside Trump's own party. About six in ten Republicans now disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, up from about half in April [10], a move of roughly ten points [3].
Most of those same Republicans still excuse him. Of Republicans, 67% say factors outside his control are more to blame for high prices [11]. That leaves at most a third blaming his policies [1], against 65% of all adults [2]. "I think inflation is a very difficult thing to tackle," said Fred Naumann, 51, a Republican and longtime Trump supporter [12].
The economy rating has a longer slide behind it. The 26% is 14 points below March 2025, just after he took office for the second time [4]. That puts the starting point near 40% [2]. In his first term the economy was often a point of strength, according to the report [15].
The complaints in the interviews are about cash flow. "I used to have a lot more disposable income. I don't have that any more," said Pedro Sanchez, 52, of Perris, California, a Trump voter who works in law enforcement [13]. Robert Gault, 66, a retired factory worker from Bradford, Pennsylvania, who describes himself as a Republican, said: "He said, 'Make America Great Again.' And I have not seen him do that." [14]
The vote can break more than one way. If Republican disapproval turns into lower turnout or defections, Congress changes hands, and the tariff policy the report links to the blame faces a chamber with less reason to defend it. Should the 67% who blame outside forces vote as usual, the 17% stays a sentiment reading with little effect on seats. A fall in fuel and grocery prices in the weeks left would weaken the issue before anyone votes. The report, as published, does not include vote intention or a seat estimate.
In my view, the poll raises the chance that Congress changes hands. The stronger evidence for that is the ten-point move among Republicans since April, more than the 17% itself. Trump is campaigning hard, with an aggressive schedule of rallies [6]. The counter-case is the 67%: voters who dislike the result and excuse the cause can still turn out for the party. If Republican turnout holds in November with disapproval near six in ten, the poll measured irritation, and today's tariff and fiscal assumptions survive.
What to watch
- Whether the 67% of Republicans who blame outside factors falls in the next AP-NORC reading, turning disapproval into blame.
- Whether concern about affording gas, now about half of adults against 39% in July, keeps climbing into November.
- Whether Republican candidates in contested races break publicly with the tariff policy the report links to the blame before Election Day.