Invest1 publisher3 min readPublished
Sixty-nine cents a shopper separates this Halloween from last year's record
The National Retail Federation forecasts $13.5 billion of Halloween spending, about 3.1% above 2025, though its own per-head and participation figures imply closer to 2% and both years are rounded to $100 million.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- The National Retail Federation's annual consumer survey, run by Prosper Insights & Analytics, has this year's Halloween spending maintaining the record level of last year's $13.1 billion.
- Average planned spending is $115.14 per person, in line with the $114.45 per person the same survey recorded in 2025.
- 74% of consumers plan to celebrate, against 73% last year and 68% in 2019, the year before the pandemic lifted participation.
- 49% say they will start Halloween shopping in September or earlier, the same share as last year and up from 34% in 2016.
- Discount stores are the top planned destination at 39%, ahead of specialty Halloween and costume stores at 32% and online at 27%.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- contradiction The survey's components and its headline do not quite agree: per-head and participation growth imply about 2%, the headline says 3.1%, and the rounding on both years spans 2.3% to 3.8%, so the record is not separable from the rounding.
- constraint With dollars per head effectively flat, any unit growth a retailer books this October has to come from more households celebrating or more visits, and 39% of those visits begin in a discount store.
- decision A third of consumers saying they will buy reusable or repurposable items pushes assortment decisions toward durable decor and wider price-point coverage, and it prices this year's decoration sale against a shopper who already owns last year's.
- exposure Costumes carry the most dollars off the smallest participation base, running about 1.45 times candy per point of participation, so a weak costume season costs more than a weak candy season.
The forecast is up about 3.1% on last year's total while per-head spending is up 0.6%, a difference of 69 cents [1][2]. Participation adds roughly 1.4% on top of that [3]. Compound the two and you get about 2% [4]. Both years are reported to the nearest $100 million, which puts the true increase anywhere between 2.3% and 3.8% [5].
Costumes are the largest category at $4.4 billion, bought by 71% of consumers, while candy is the most widely bought at 96% for $4.1 billion [7][5]. Decorations sit between them at 78% and $4.3 billion [6]. Per percentage point of stated participation that is about $62 million for costumes, $55 million for decorations, $43 million for candy and $19 million for greeting cards, where planned purchases rose to 42% from 38% [7][8]. The four categories add to $13.6 billion, a hundred million above the headline total [6].
"Consumers continue to make Halloween a spending priority, but they are also approaching the season with affordability in mind," Allison Zeller, NRF's vice president of industry and consumer insights, said [14]. The survey's support for the second half of that sentence is conditional. Asked what they would do about higher-than-expected prices on Halloween items, 34% said they would look for items they can reuse in future years or repurpose, 31% said they would comparison shop, and 26% said they would look for coupons or sales [4].
Among the early shoppers, 42% say they look forward to fall and 34% call Halloween one of their favorite holidays, against 23% buying early to spread out their budget and 21% who found prices and promotions too good to pass up [12]. Enthusiasm outpolls budget-spreading by 19 points [9]. The channel that has moved most over a decade is local and small business, at 13% of planned purchases against 7% in 2016 [10].
Nearly half of consumers, 47%, say they are using AI platforms and tools for Halloween shopping, mainly to brainstorm ideas while planning (34%) and to ask for recommendations during product research (32%) [13]. "AI is becoming an increasingly common part of the consumer shopping journey," Phil Rist, Prosper's executive vice president of strategy, said [15]. Online searches are still the leading source of costume inspiration at 32%, down from 37% last year and the lowest in a decade [16]. The survey does not connect the two figures.
These are stated intentions from a September consumer survey, not October receipts [1]. In my view the season is flat per head with what growth there is coming from how many households celebrate, and the 34% reuse answer is a drag on the decorations line, because a wreath bought for its fourth October does not appear in this year's total [4][6]. The reading fails if post-holiday figures show per-head spending materially above the survey's $115.14 and discount-store share falling back from 39% [2][9].
What to watch
- Whether NRF's post-holiday read puts actual per-head spending above the $115.14 intention, and by how much.
- Whether discount-store share climbs past 39% at the expense of specialty costume stores once October pricing lands.
- Whether next year's survey shows AI tool usage above 47% while online search as costume inspiration falls below 32%.