other
Trade group forecasting 4.4% 2026 retail sales growth excluding autos, gas and restaurants.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Spending and Michigan sentiment both slipped, pushing odds of a Fed hold to 71.2%. For rate-sensitive books, the print that removes hike risk adds credit risk.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
The National Retail Federation forecasts $13.5 billion of Halloween spending, about 3.1% above 2025, though its own per-head and participation figures imply closer to 2% and both years are rounded to $100 million.
Reality
The National Retail Federation counts 61% of shoppers using AI tools this back-to-school season. The only figure on what that does to order size, 30% to 40%, comes from a vendor that sells brands their discoverability.
Reality
CORCA puts a retail crime coordination center inside Homeland Security Investigations. Critics say the data-sharing trigger is any "threat," with retailers as direct suppliers.
Reality
Electronics are now the biggest line item at $293 per student, 70% of parents call the cost a burden, and 23% reached for buy-now-pay-later to cover it.
Reality