Person
Thierry Wizman is a global foreign-exchange and interest-rates strategist at Macquarie Group, frequently quoted by media on bonds, currencies and macro markets.
French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu will give his answer to the spending protests only at month-end, with public debt at 120% of GDP. Until then, French bond spreads rest on assumptions of fiscal restraint that a round of concessions would break.
Reality
France's five-year default swaps rose to 81 basis points on Friday as its 10-year yield hit 4.989%, the highest since 2002. Macquarie's Thierry Wizman calls outright default unlikely but puts the odds of a budget-straining National Rally presidency near 50%.
Reality
Analysts expect Iran to drag the war past the Nov. 3 midterms, even as U.S.-escorted Middle East oil exports climb to almost 13 million barrels a day. Their case is that the escorted barrels cost Tehran leverage and leave escalation as one of its two remaining options.
Reality
Treasury's repurchase operations rose from $2 billion each to $4 billion as 30-year yields approached a near-20-year high. Stan Druckenmiller called it price management; a Wharton economist who served under Bessent calls it plumbing.
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Gilts at 5.81% and 30-year JGBs above 4% put the US long bond inside a range of sovereign alternatives rather than above it. The 10-year was back at 4.74% by Friday.
Reality