The federal government is funding exactly half of Anderon's upstate New York plant. The outside customers IBM hopes to sell wafers to include three quantum developers that each took up to $100 million from Commerce this month.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives66
- Confidence36
The Sandia-led QUOPS benchmark rates a quantum computer by the largest useful circuit it can finish and how fast it finishes it. Across Google, IBM and Quantinuum machines the best score was 1,824, against a chemistry target of 250 million.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives48
- Confidence66
The Dutch startup derives keys from each chip's manufacturing variation, and its $50 million Series A brings in Prodrive Technologies, TNO Ventures and TEL Venture Capital as investors who also supply the production path.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives78
- Confidence45
The Commerce award is the only contracted dollar figure Quantinuum put on the page, and the two onshore manufacturing partners it named, GlobalFoundries and Monarch Quantum, arrive without volumes, dates or contract values.
Publishers:quantinuum.com
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives85
- Confidence60
Each company banks $100 million of CHIPS money and hands Washington an equity stake whose size has not been published, which leaves July's GlobalFoundries deal, 1 per cent alongside $300 million, as the only visible price.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives72
- Confidence50
IBM has closed the HRL Laboratories deal behind a 2029 fault-tolerant target. For anyone holding ciphertext that must outlive the decade, the vendor's date is now the planning date.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption41
- Hype gap+46
- Incentives74
- Confidence38
Federal dollars are no longer the binding constraint in US quantum. Two dated milestones, one vendor and one state, are what a migration plan can actually be built against.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives80
- Confidence38
The trapped-ion roadmap has now delivered 32, 56 and 98 qubits in consecutive generations. What matters next is whether ion transport through junctions keeps scaling.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence42
The trapped-ion company signed a joint development deal with contract manufacturer Quanta Computer for hardware infrastructure. No new processor, no volumes, no timetable, and that is the tell.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives62
- Confidence41